Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for HOSE:TLG using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
Thien Long Group
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
Note: Free cash flow to equity valuations ignore the company's cash or debt.
HOSE:TLG DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
Thien Long Group
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
Thien Long Group
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Thien Long Group's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Thien Long Group's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a substantial discount (< 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
Thien Long Group's
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Thien Long Group's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Thien Long Group's earnings are expected to grow by 14.1% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Thien Long Group's revenue is expected to grow by 12.4% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Thien Long Group's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
Thien Long Group
has a total score of
4/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
A company's financial position is much like your own financial position,
it includes everything you own
The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up
Thien Long Group's finances.
The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Thien Long Group is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
Thien Long Group's cash and other short term assets cover its long term commitments.
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of
Thien Long Group's finances. If any of them are yellow this
indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
High level of physical assets or inventory.
Debt is covered by short term assets, assets are 8.3x debt.
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t
however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest
on its debts this may have impacts in the future.
The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to
see the red area (debt) decreasing.
If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and
whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. Dinh Tam Nguyen has been the Chief Executive Officer of Thien Long Group Corporation since May 3, 2017. Mr. Nguyen served as Deputy Chief Executive Officer of Thien Long Group Corporation since June 2013 until May 3, 2017. Mr. Nguyen served as Production Group Director of Thien Long Group Corporation. He served as a Director of Thien Long Group Corporation until May 2017.
Insufficient data for Dinh Tam to compare compensation growth.
Insufficient data for Dinh Tam to establish whether their remuneration is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in .
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure of the
Thien Long Group
management team in years:
The tenure for the Thien Long Group management team is about average.
Dinh Tam Nguyen
Chief Executive Officer
Chief Financial Officer
Bao Tinh Diep
Director of Technology
Van Hao Trinh
Bui Van Huong
HR Group Director & Deputy General Director
Procurement Group Director & Deputy General Director
Anh Hao Truong
General Director of Thien Long Global Co Ltd
Deputy General Director
Board of Directors
Nga Thi Nguyen
Chairman of Supervisory Board
Tran Van Hung
Member of Supervisory Board
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
No 3 month open market individual insider trading information.
Thien Long Group Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells stationery and school supplies in Vietnam. The company also provides plastic teaching equipment, plastic household goods, printing trademark, silk screen printing and packages, and printing products. The company was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
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