Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for NasdaqGM:KOD using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
Note: Free cash flow to equity valuations ignore the company's cash or debt.
NasdaqGM:KOD DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Kodiak Sciences's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Kodiak Sciences's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Kodiak Sciences's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Kodiak Sciences's earnings are expected to grow by 11.5% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Unable to determine if Kodiak Sciences is high growth as no revenue estimate data is available.
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Kodiak Sciences's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
0/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Dr. Victor Perlroth, M.D co-founded Kodiak Sciences Inc. in 2009 and serves as its Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer. Previously, Dr. Perlroth served as Venture Partner and then Entrepreneur in Residence at MPM Capital, a dedicated healthcare venture capital investment firm. In 2003, he co-founded Avidia, a biopharmaceuticals drug discovery and development company where he served as General Manager and Vice President of Corporate Development. In this role, at various times he had broad management responsibility across both corporate and research and development activities. Dr. Perlroth was one of two principals involved in the acquisition of Avidia by Amgen for $450 million. Earlier, Dr. Perlroth worked at Guzik Technical Enterprises, the industry-leading provider of test equipment to the hard disk drive industry, where he was Chief Operating Officer. Dr. Perlroth earned his M.D. and M.B.A. degrees from Stanford University and an A.B. in Molecular Biology summa cum laude from Princeton University.
Victor's compensation has increased whilst company is loss making.
Victor's remuneration is about average for companies of similar size in United States of America.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
management team in years:
The tenure for the Kodiak Sciences management team is about average.
Chief Medical Officer & Chief Development Officer
Senior Vice President of Discovery Medicine
Senior Vice President of Quality Operations
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The average tenure for the Kodiak Sciences board of directors is less than 3 years, this suggests a new board.
Board of Directors
Lead Independent Director
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
More shares have been bought than sold by Kodiak Sciences individual insiders in the past 3 months, but not in substantial volumes.
What Kind Of Shareholders Own Kodiak Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ:KOD)?
Check out our latest analysis for Kodiak Sciences NasdaqGM:KOD Ownership Summary, August 8th 2019 What Does The Institutional Ownership Tell Us About Kodiak Sciences? … Insider Ownership Of Kodiak Sciences While the precise definition of an insider can be subjective, almost everyone considers board members to be insiders. … Private Company Ownership Our data indicates that Private Companies hold 7.3%, of the company's shares.
Can We See Significant Insider Ownership On The Kodiak Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ:KOD) Share Register?
If you want to know who really controls Kodiak Sciences Inc. … Insiders often own a large chunk of younger, smaller, companies while huge companies tend to have institutions as shareholders. … Kodiak Sciences is not a large company by global standards.
Who Has Been Buying Kodiak Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ:KOD) Shares?
Unfortunately, there are also plenty of examples of share prices declining precipitously after insiders have sold shares. … So we'll take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in Kodiak Sciences Inc. … But logic dictates you should pay some attention to whether insiders are buying or selling shares.
Kodiak Sciences Inc., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, provides novel therapeutics to treat retinal diseases. The company’s lead product candidate is KSI-301, a vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF)-biological agent that is in Phase I clinical study to treat wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and diabetic retinopathy. Its preclinical stage product candidates include KSI-501, a bispecific anti-interleukin 6/VEGF bioconjugate to target inflammation and abnormal angiogenesis in the pathogenesis of retinal vascular diseases; KSI-201, a recombinant mammalian cell expressed dual inhibitor antibody biopolymer bioconjugate for the treatment of wet AMD; and KSI-401, a recombinant mammalian cell expressed antibody biopolymer conjugate for the treatment of dry AMD. The company was formerly known as Oligasis, LLC and changed its name to Kodiak Sciences Inc. in September 2015. Kodiak Sciences Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.
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