Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for GTSM:5016 using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
Song Ho Industrial
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
Note: Free cash flow to equity valuations ignore the company's cash or debt.
GTSM:5016 DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
Song Ho Industrial
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
Song Ho Industrial
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Song Ho Industrial's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Song Ho Industrial's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
Song Ho Industrial's
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Song Ho Industrial's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
In this section we usually present revenue and earnings growth projections based on the consensus estimates of professional analysts to help investors understand the company’s ability to generate profit. But as Song Ho Industrial has not provided enough past data and has no analyst forecast, its future earnings cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst predictions.
This is quite a rare situation as 97% of companies covered by Simply Wall St do have past financial data. You can see them here.
Show me the analysis anyway
The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past
performance, by looking at estimated
and how much profit it is expected to make.
Future estimates come from
professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get
Expected Metals and Mining industry annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
Song Ho Industrial
expected to grow at an
Unable to compare Song Ho Industrial's earnings growth to the low risk savings rate as no estimate data is available.
Growth vs Market Checks
Unable to compare Song Ho Industrial's earnings growth to the Taiwan, Province of China market average as no estimate data is available.
Unable to compare Song Ho Industrial's revenue growth to the Taiwan, Province of China market average as no estimate data is available.
Unable to determine if Song Ho Industrial is high growth as no earnings estimate data is available.
Unable to determine if Song Ho Industrial is high growth as no revenue estimate data is available.
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
All data from Song Ho Industrial Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago, and in
Trailing twelve months (TTM)
annual period rather than quarterly.
GTSM:5016 Past Financials Data
Date (Data in TWD Millions)
*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.
Performance in 3 years
In the same way as past performance we look at the future estimated return
(profit) compared to the available
funds. We do this looking forward 3 years.
Unable to establish if Song Ho Industrial will efficiently use shareholders’ funds in the future without estimates of Return on Equity.
Examine whether Song Ho Industrial is trading at Song Ho Industrial'san attractive price based on how much it is expected to earn in the future, and relative to its industry peers and the wider market.
Song Ho Industrial's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
Metals and Mining
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
Song Ho Industrial
has a total score of
2/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
A company's financial position is much like your own financial position,
it includes everything you own
The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up
Song Ho Industrial's finances.
The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Song Ho Industrial is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
Song Ho Industrial's cash and other short term assets cover its long term commitments.
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of
Song Ho Industrial's finances. If any of them are yellow this
indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
High level of physical assets or inventory.
Debt is covered by short term assets, assets are 1.7x debt.
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t
however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest
on its debts this may have impacts in the future.
The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to
see the red area (debt) decreasing.
If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and
whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Song Ho Industrial Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells various steel products in Taiwan. The company offers hard drawn steel, roping, springs, spokes, flat, annealed steel, and galvanized steel wires; and cross lay ropes, fiber core and independent wire rope core (IWRC) parallel lay ropes, elevator wire ropes, IWRC 8 standard elevator wire ropes, profile wire ropes, non-rotation ropes, strands impacted wire rope, and galvanized steel wire strand, as well as wire ropes for suspension bridges. It also provides cold drawn steel bars, such as low and medium carbon, free cutting, alloy, and stainless steel bars; spheroidized wires, including alloy steel, nipple, bearing, low carbon steel, middle-high carbon steel, and cold heading wires; and water-control gate machinery. The company was founded in 1972 and is based in Nantou City, Taiwan.
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