Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for TSE:4524 using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
Note: Free cash flow to equity valuations ignore the company's cash or debt.
TSE:4524 DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
The current share price of
is above its future cash flow value.
Often investors are willing to pay a
for a company that has a high dividend or the potential for future growth.
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Morishita Jintan's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
In this section we usually present revenue and earnings growth projections based on the consensus estimates of professional analysts to help investors understand the company’s ability to generate profit. But as Morishita Jintan has not provided enough past data and has no analyst forecast, its future earnings cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst predictions.
This is quite a rare situation as 97% of companies covered by Simply Wall St do have past financial data. You can see them here.
Show me the analysis anyway
The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past
performance, by looking at estimated
and how much profit it is expected to make.
Future estimates come from
professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get
Expected Personal Products industry annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
expected to grow at an
Unable to compare Morishita Jintan's earnings growth to the low risk savings rate as no estimate data is available.
Growth vs Market Checks
Unable to compare Morishita Jintan's earnings growth to the Japan market average as no estimate data is available.
Unable to compare Morishita Jintan's revenue growth to the Japan market average as no estimate data is available.
Unable to determine if Morishita Jintan is high growth as no earnings estimate data is available.
Unable to determine if Morishita Jintan is high growth as no revenue estimate data is available.
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Morishita Jintan's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
1/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
A company's financial position is much like your own financial position,
it includes everything you own
The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up
Morishita Jintan's finances.
The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Morishita Jintan is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
Morishita Jintan's cash and other short term assets cover its long term commitments.
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of
Morishita Jintan's finances. If any of them are yellow this
indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
High level of physical assets or inventory.
Debt is covered by short term assets, assets are 5.6x debt.
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t
however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest
on its debts this may have impacts in the future.
The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to
see the red area (debt) decreasing.
If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and
whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. Yuji Morishita has been the Chief Executive Officer at Morishita Jintan Co., Ltd., since 2019 and also serves as its President since July 2019. He was an Executive Officer and General Manager of Capsule Business Div at Morishita Jintan Co., Ltd since September 2012 until 2019 and February 2015 until 2019 respectively. Mr. Morishita joined Morishita Jintan Co., Ltd in January 2007. Mr. Morishita served as General Manager of Health Care Business Div. at Morishita Jintan Co., Ltd since April 2014. Mr. Morishita has been a Director of Morishita Jintan Co., Ltd since June 2014.
Insufficient data for Yuji to compare compensation growth.
Insufficient data for Yuji to establish whether their remuneration is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in Japan.
CEO, President & Director
General Manager of Administrative Division
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The tenure for the Morishita Jintan board of directors is about average.
Board of Directors
CEO, President & Director
General Manager of Administrative Division
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
No 3 month open market individual insider trading information.
Morishita Jintan Co., Ltd. produces and distributes pharmaceuticals, quasi drugs, medical devices, and food products in Japan. It operates through Healthcare Business and Capsule Business divisions. The Healthcare Business division manufactures and sells Jintan branded products, as well as engages in OEM/ODM of dietary supplements, cosmetics, foods, etc. The Capsule Business division is involved in the OEM/ODM of pharmaceuticals, foods, etc., as well as the development of industrial use capsules. The company was founded in 1893 and is headquartered in Osaka, Japan.
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