Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for ICSE:HAGA using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
Note: Free cash flow to equity valuations ignore the company's cash or debt.
ICSE:HAGA DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Hagar hf's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Hagar hf's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Hagar hf's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
In this section we usually present revenue and earnings growth projections based on the consensus estimates of professional analysts to help investors understand the company’s ability to generate profit. But as Hagar hf has not provided enough past data and has no analyst forecast, its future earnings cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst predictions.
This is quite a rare situation as 97% of companies covered by Simply Wall St do have past financial data. You can see them here.
Show me the analysis anyway
The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past
performance, by looking at estimated
and how much profit it is expected to make.
Future estimates come from
professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get
Expected Consumer Retailing industry annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
expected to grow at an
Unable to compare Hagar hf's earnings growth to the low risk savings rate as no estimate data is available.
Growth vs Market Checks
Unable to compare Hagar hf's earnings growth to the market average as no estimate data is available.
Unable to compare Hagar hf's revenue growth to the market average as no estimate data is available.
Unable to determine if Hagar hf is high growth as no earnings estimate data is available.
Unable to determine if Hagar hf is high growth as no revenue estimate data is available.
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Hagar hf's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
3/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
Mr. Finnur Árnason serves as the Chief Executive Officer of Hagar hf. Mr. Árnason serves as Director General of Hagar. Mr. Árnason graduated in business administration from the University of Iceland and in microeconomics from the University of Hartford in 1987.
Finnur's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year, both up more than 20%.
Insufficient data for Finnur to establish whether their remuneration is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in .
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
management team in years:
The average tenure for the Hagar hf management team is less than 2 years, this suggests a new team.
Chief Executive Officer
Chief Operating Officer
Managing Director of Bónus
Managing Director of Banana
Managing Director of Infrastructure
Managing Director of Hagkaup & Haga's Specialized Stores
CEO of Olíuverzlun Íslands
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The average tenure for the Hagar hf board of directors is less than 3 years, this suggests a new board.
Board of Directors
Independent Chairman of the Board
Vice Chairman of the Board
Katrín Olga Jóhannesdóttir
Eiríkur S. Jóhannsson
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
No 3 month open market individual insider trading information.
Hagar hf. operates retail stores in Iceland. Its stores offer food, beauty products, home furnishings, leisure products, and seasonal products, as well as clothing for women, men, and children; sports and outdoor recreation equipment; and shoes. The company also imports and distributes fruits and vegetables; processes meat; and provides customs processing, stock keeping and order fulfillment, product labeling, and other services. It operates 48 stores within 5 retail chains, as well as 4 warehouses. Hagar hf. is based in Kopavogur, Iceland.
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