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Ferguson

LSE:FERG
Snowflake Description

Outstanding track record with adequate balance sheet.

The Snowflake is generated from 30 checks in 5 different areas, read more below.
FERG
LSE
£15B
Market Cap
  1. Home
  2. GB
  3. Capital Goods
Company description

Ferguson plc distributes plumbing and heating products in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Central Europe. The last earnings update was 53 days ago. More info.


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FERG Share Price and Events
7 Day Returns
4%
LSE:FERG
1%
GB Trade Distributors
0.1%
GB Market
1 Year Returns
35.8%
LSE:FERG
19.5%
GB Trade Distributors
9.8%
GB Market
FERG Shareholder Return
  7 Day 30 Day 90 Day 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Ferguson (FERG) 4% -0.1% 7.3% 35.8% 28.7% 76.9%
GB Trade Distributors 1% 2.2% 6.3% 19.5% 29.8% 56.1%
GB Market 0.1% -0.2% 2% 9.8% 4.8% 11.5%
1 Year Return vs Industry and Market
  • FERG outperformed the Trade Distributors industry which returned 19.5% over the past year.
  • FERG outperformed the Market in United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland which returned 9.8% over the past year.
Price Volatility
FERG
Industry
5yr Volatility vs Market

FERG Value

 Is Ferguson undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?

Value is all about what a company is worth versus what price it is available for. If you went into a grocery store and all the bananas were on sale at half price, they could be considered undervalued.
INTRINSIC VALUE BASED ON FUTURE CASH FLOWS
Here we compare the current share price of Ferguson to its discounted cash flow analysis.value.

The discounted cash flow value is simply looking at what the company is worth today, based on estimates of how much money it is expected to make in the future.
Raw Data

Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Ferguson.

LSE:FERG Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 23 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 6.8%
Perpetual Growth Rate 10-Year GB Government Bond Rate 0.5%

An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for LSE:FERG
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 10-Year GB Govt Bond Rate 0.5%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 6.1%
Trade Distributors Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 0.95
Re-levered Beta = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
= 0.947 (1 + (1- 19%) (11.8%))
1.025
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm)
1.02
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 0.53% + (1.025 * 6.07%)
6.75%

Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for LSE:FERG using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Ferguson is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

Note: Free cash flow to equity valuations ignore the company's cash or debt.

LSE:FERG DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (USD, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 6.75%)
2020 981.27 Analyst x13 919.21
2021 1,060.25 Analyst x12 930.37
2022 1,101.43 Analyst x7 905.38
2023 1,130.22 Est @ 2.61% 870.29
2024 1,152.70 Est @ 1.99% 831.46
2025 1,170.58 Est @ 1.55% 790.96
2026 1,185.16 Est @ 1.24% 750.16
2027 1,197.37 Est @ 1.03% 709.95
2028 1,207.91 Est @ 0.88% 670.91
2029 1,217.27 Est @ 0.78% 633.35
Present value of next 10 years cash flows $8,012.00
LSE:FERG DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= $1,217.27 × (1 + 0.53%) ÷ (6.75% – 0.53%)
$19,668.78
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
= $19,668.78 ÷ (1 + 6.75%)10
$10,233.67
LSE:FERG Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= $8,012.00 + $10,233.67
$18,245.67
Equity Value per Share
(USD)
= Total value / Shares Outstanding
= $18,245.67 / 224.41
$81.3
LSE:FERG Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Exchange Rate USD/GBP
(Reporting currency to currency of LSE:FERG)
0.759
Value per Share
(GBP)
= Value per Share in USD x Exchange Rate (USD/GBP)
= $81.3 x 0.759
£61.7
Value per share (GBP) From above. £61.70
Current discount Discount to share price of £67.34
= -1 x (£67.34 - £61.70) / £61.70
-9.1%

Learn more about our DCF calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model .

  • The current share price of Ferguson is above its future cash flow value.
Often investors are willing to pay a premium for a company that has a high dividend or the potential for future growth.
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.

The amount the stock market is willing to pay for Ferguson's earnings, growth and assets is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Are Ferguson's earnings available for a low price, and how does this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Raw Data
LSE:FERG PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Earnings Per Share * Company Filings (2019-07-31) in USD $4.61
LSE:FERG Share Price ** LSE (2019-12-10) in GBP £67.34
LSE:FERG Share Price converted to USD reporting currency Exchange rate (GBP/ USD) 1.318 $88.73
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Trade Distributors Industry PE Ratio Median Figure of 19 Publicly-Listed Trade Distributors Companies 15.14x
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Market PE Ratio Median Figure of 752 Publicly-Listed Companies 17.2x

* Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual GAAP earnings per share excluding extraordinary items.

** Primary Listing of Ferguson.

LSE:FERG PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PE Ratio

= LSE:FERG Share Price ÷ EPS (both in USD)

= 88.73 ÷ 4.61

19.25x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Ferguson is overvalued based on earnings compared to the GB Trade Distributors industry average.
  • Ferguson is overvalued based on earnings compared to the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland market.
Price based on expected Growth
Does Ferguson's expected growth come at a high price?
Raw Data
LSE:FERG PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
PE Ratio See PE Ratio Section 19.25x
Net Income Annual Growth Rate See Future Growth Section.
Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 23 Analysts
4.1%per year
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Trade Distributors Industry PEG Ratio Median Figure of 11 Publicly-Listed Trade Distributors Companies 2.53x
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Market PEG Ratio Median Figure of 560 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.47x

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

LSE:FERG PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PEG Ratio

= PE Ratio ÷ Net Income Annual Growth Rate

= 19.25x ÷ 4.1%

4.71x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Ferguson is poor value based on expected growth next year.
Price based on value of assets
What value do investors place on Ferguson's assets?
Raw Data
LSE:FERG PB (Price to Book) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Book Value per Share Company Filings (2019-07-31) in USD $19.03
LSE:FERG Share Price * LSE (2019-12-10) in GBP £67.34
LSE:FERG Share Price converted to USD reporting currency Exchange rate (GBP/ USD) 1.318 $88.73
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Trade Distributors Industry PB Ratio Median Figure of 21 Publicly-Listed Trade Distributors Companies 1.84x
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Market PB Ratio Median Figure of 1,312 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.54x
LSE:FERG PB (Price to Book) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PB Ratio

= LSE:FERG Share Price ÷ Book Value per Share (both in USD)

= 88.73 ÷ 19.03

4.66x

* Primary Listing of Ferguson.

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Ferguson is overvalued based on assets compared to the GB Trade Distributors industry average.
X
Value checks
We assess Ferguson's value by looking at:
  1. Is the discounted cash flow value less than 20%, or 40% of the share price? (2 checks) ( Click here or on bar chart for details of DCF calculation. )
  2. Is the PE ratio less than the market average, and/ or less than the Trade Distributors industry average (and greater than 0)? (2 checks)
  3. Is the PEG ratio within a reasonable range (0 to 1)? (1 check)
  4. Is the PB ratio less than the Trade Distributors industry average (and greater than 0)? (1 check)
  5. Ferguson has a total score of 0/6, see the detailed checks below.

    Note: We use GAAP Earnings per Share in all our calculations including PE and PEG Ratio.

    Full details on the Value part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

FERG Future Performance

 How is Ferguson expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 23 analysts?

The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past performance, by looking at estimated growth and how much profit it is expected to make.

Future estimates come from professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get it right!
Annual Growth Rate
4.1%
Expected annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
Is Ferguson expected to grow at an attractive rate?
  • Ferguson's earnings growth is expected to exceed the low risk savings rate of 0.5%.
Growth vs Market Checks
  • Ferguson's earnings growth is positive but not above the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland market average.
  • Ferguson's revenue growth is positive but not above the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland market average.
Annual Growth Rates Comparison
Raw Data
LSE:FERG Future Growth Rates Data Sources
Data Point Source Value (per year)
LSE:FERG Future Earnings Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 23 Analysts 4.1%
LSE:FERG Future Revenue Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Revenue of 23 Analysts 3.1%
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Trade Distributors Industry Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 8.5%
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Trade Distributors Industry Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 3.6%
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Market Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 12.4%
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Market Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 3.6%

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Learn more about our growth rate calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model.

Analysts growth expectations
Raw Data
LSE:FERG Analysts Growth Expectations Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (4 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 23 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
All numbers in USD Millions and using Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
LSE:FERG Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income * Avg. No. Analysts
2024-07-31 25,351 3
2023-07-31 24,780 4
2022-07-31 24,434 1,521 1,198 15
2021-07-31 23,391 1,426 1,153 23
2020-07-31 22,711 1,305 1,097 23
2019-12-10
LSE:FERG Past Financials Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income *
2019-07-31 22,010 1,290 1,061
2019-04-30 21,791 1,093 1,001
2019-01-31 21,572 896 941
2018-10-31 21,162 966 891
2018-07-31 20,752 1,036 841
2018-04-30 20,341 1,026 967
2018-01-31 19,929 1,016 1,093
2017-10-31 19,607 983 1,073
2017-07-31 19,284 950 1,053
2017-04-30 19,049 846
2017-01-31 16,613 1,077 663
2016-10-31 15,866 1,007 617

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Super high growth metrics
High Growth Checks
  • Ferguson's earnings are expected to grow by 4.1% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
  • Ferguson's revenue is expected to grow by 3.1% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Raw Data
LSE:FERG Past and Future Earnings per Share
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (4 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 23 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below

All data from Ferguson Company Filings, last reported 4 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

LSE:FERG Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) EPS * EPS High Estimate EPS Low Estimate Avg. No. Analysts
2024-07-31
2023-07-31
2022-07-31 5.34 5.50 4.88 4.00
2021-07-31 5.12 5.60 4.65 11.00
2020-07-31 4.80 4.95 4.70 9.00
2019-12-10
LSE:FERG Past Financials Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) EPS *
2019-07-31 4.61
2019-04-30 4.35
2019-01-31 4.10
2018-10-31 3.85
2018-07-31 3.61
2018-04-30 4.11
2018-01-31 4.60
2017-10-31 4.51
2017-07-31 4.42
2017-04-30 3.55
2017-01-31 2.78
2016-10-31 2.58

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance in 3 years
In the same way as past performance we look at the future estimated return (profit) compared to the available funds. We do this looking forward 3 years.
  • Ferguson is expected to efficiently use shareholders’ funds in the future (Return on Equity greater than 20%).
X
Future performance checks
We assess Ferguson's future performance by looking at:
  1. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the low risk savings rate, plus a premium to keep pace with inflation?
  2. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in earnings of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland market? (1 check)
  3. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in revenue of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland market? (1 check)
  4. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  6. Is the Return on Equity in 3 years expected to be over 20%? (1 check)
Some of the above checks will fail if the company is expected to be loss making in the relevant year.
Ferguson has a total score of 2/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note 1: We use GAAP Net Income Excluding Exceptional Items for our Earnings in all our calculations.

Full details on the Future part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

FERG Past Performance

  How has Ferguson performed over the past 5 years?

The past performance of a company can be measured by how much growth it has experienced and how much profit it makes relative to the funds and assets it has available.
Past earnings growth
Below we compare Ferguson's growth in the last year to its industry (Trade Distributors).
Past Earnings growth analysis
We also check if the company has grown in the past 5 years, and whether it has maintained that growth in the year.
  • Ferguson's year on year earnings growth rate has been positive over the past 5 years.
  • Ferguson's 1-year earnings growth exceeds its 5-year average (26.2% vs 12%)
  • Ferguson's earnings growth has exceeded the GB Trade Distributors industry average in the past year (26.2% vs 5.7%).
Earnings and Revenue History
Ferguson's revenue and profit over the past 5 years is shown below, any years where they have experienced a loss will show up in red.
Raw Data

All data from Ferguson Company Filings, last reported 4 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

LSE:FERG Past Revenue, Cash Flow and Net Income Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Net Income * G+A Expenses R&D Expenses
2019-07-31 22,010.00 1,061.00 -5.00
2019-04-30 21,791.00 1,001.00 -3.50
2019-01-31 21,572.00 941.00 -2.00
2018-10-31 21,162.00 891.00 -0.50
2018-07-31 20,752.00 841.00 1.00
2018-04-30 20,340.50 967.00 1.50
2018-01-31 19,929.00 1,093.00 2.00
2017-10-31 19,606.50 1,073.00 2.50
2017-07-31 19,284.00 1,053.00 3.00
2017-04-30 19,048.70 845.70 1.94
2017-01-31 16,613.01 662.65 -0.26
2016-10-31 15,866.22 617.02 -0.72
2016-07-31 16,663.24 629.40 -1.33
2016-01-31 19,392.09 813.38 -1.42
2015-10-31 20,877.06 691.60 -2.32
2015-07-31 20,850.80 502.03 -3.13
2015-01-31 18,997.97 404.12 0.00
2014-10-31 19,925.63 600.56 2.40
2014-07-31 20,719.29 813.85 5.07
2014-04-30 21,633.88 747.28 7.60
2014-01-31 21,296.37 633.38 9.87
2013-10-31 20,951.27 537.05 13.65
2013-07-31 19,974.19 431.25 16.70
2013-01-31 20,375.62 6.34 17.43

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance last year
We want to ensure a company is making the most of what it has available. This is done by comparing the return (profit) to a company's available funds, assets and capital.
  • Ferguson has efficiently used shareholders’ funds last year (Return on Equity greater than 20%).
  • Ferguson used its assets more efficiently than the GB Trade Distributors industry average last year based on Return on Assets.
  • Ferguson has improved its use of capital last year versus 3 years ago (Return on Capital Employed).
X
Past performance checks
We assess Ferguson's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
  1. Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
  2. Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the Trade Distributors industry? (1 check)
  3. Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
  6. Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
Ferguson has a total score of 6/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.

Full details on the Past part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

FERG Health

 How is Ferguson's financial health and their level of debt?

A company's financial position is much like your own financial position, it includes everything you own (assets) and owe (liabilities).

The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up Ferguson's finances.

The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Net Worth
  • Ferguson is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
  • Ferguson's cash and other short term assets cover its long term commitments.
Balance sheet
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of Ferguson's finances. If any of them are yellow this indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the checks below.
Assets
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
  • High level of physical assets or inventory.
  • Debt is covered by short term assets, assets are 3.1x debt.
Historical Debt
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t bad, however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest on its debts this may have impacts in the future.

The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to see the red area (debt) decreasing.

If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Raw Data

All data from Ferguson Company Filings, last reported 4 months ago.

LSE:FERG Past Debt and Equity Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Total Equity Total Debt Cash & Short Term Investments
2019-07-31 4,350.00 2,344.00 1,142.00
2019-04-30 4,350.00 2,344.00 1,142.00
2019-01-31 4,290.00 2,589.00 699.00
2018-10-31 4,290.00 2,589.00 699.00
2018-07-31 4,057.00 1,924.00 833.00
2018-04-30 4,057.00 1,924.00 833.00
2018-01-31 4,551.00 3,721.00 2,308.00
2017-10-31 4,551.00 3,721.00 2,308.00
2017-07-31 4,540.00 3,248.00 2,532.00
2017-04-30 4,446.57 3,180.93 2,479.52
2017-01-31 3,884.43 2,713.20 1,088.30
2016-10-31 3,774.53 2,636.43 1,057.50
2016-07-31 3,852.10 2,491.05 1,248.18
2016-01-31 3,858.58 3,501.49 1,721.69
2015-10-31 4,208.33 3,818.87 1,877.75
2015-07-31 4,077.26 2,993.43 1,743.82
2015-01-31 3,718.17 2,315.03 470.22
2014-10-31 3,958.42 2,464.61 500.60
2014-07-31 4,872.94 1,604.05 423.81
2014-04-30 4,873.77 1,604.32 423.88
2014-01-31 4,519.21 2,077.82 554.41
2013-10-31 4,410.37 2,027.78 541.06
2013-07-31 4,635.94 1,146.46 534.51
2013-01-31 4,329.98 1,898.72 497.66
  • Ferguson's level of debt (53.9%) compared to net worth is high (greater than 40%).
  • The level of debt compared to net worth has increased over the past 5 years (33.2% vs 53.9% today).
  • Debt is well covered by operating cash flow (55%, greater than 20% of total debt).
  • Interest payments on debt are well covered by earnings (EBIT is 17.7x coverage).
X
Financial health checks
We assess Ferguson's financial health by checking for:
  1. Are short term assets greater than short term liabilities? (1 check)
  2. Are short term assets greater than long term liabilities? (1 check)
  3. Has the debt to equity ratio increased in the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the debt to equity ratio over 40%? (1 check)
  5. Is the debt covered by operating cash flow? (1 check)
  6. Are earnings greater than 5x the interest on debt (if company pays interest at all)? (1 check)
  7. Ferguson has a total score of 4/6, see the detailed checks below.
For companies that are loss making and have been so on average in the past we replace the last 2 checks with:
  1. Does cash and short term investments cover stable operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)
  2. Does cash and short term investments cover growing operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)


Full details on the Health part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

FERG Dividends

 What is Ferguson's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividends are regular cash payments to you from the company, similar to a bank paying you interest on a savings account.
Annual Dividend Income
Dividend payments
2.35%
Current annual income from Ferguson dividends. Estimated to be 2.71% next year.
If you bought £2,000 of Ferguson shares you are expected to receive £47 in your first year as a dividend.
Dividend Amount
Here we look how much dividend is being paid, if any. Is it above what you can get in a savings account? It is up there with the best dividend paying companies?
  • Ferguson's pays a higher dividend yield than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (1.95%).
  • Ferguson's dividend is below the markets top 25% of dividend payers in United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (5.19%).
Annualized Historical and Future Dividends
It is important to see if the dividend for a company is stable, and not wildly increasing/decreasing each year. This graph shows you the historical rate to count toward your assessment of the stock.

We also check to see if the dividend has increased in the past 10 years.
Raw Data
LSE:FERG Annualized Past and Future Dividends
Data Point Source Value
Past Annualized Dividend Yield S&P Global Market Data See Below
Past Dividends per Share Company Filings/ Annualized Dividend Payments See Below
Future Dividends per Share Estimates Average of up to 23 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Trade Distributors Industry Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 18 Stocks 2.4%
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Market Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 678 Stocks 4.5%
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Minimum Threshold Dividend Yield 10th Percentile 1.1%
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Bottom 25% Dividend Yield 25th Percentile 2%
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Top 25% Dividend Yield 75th Percentile 5.2%

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Note all dividend per share amounts are annualized and not quarterly or other period.

LSE:FERG Future Dividends Estimate Data
Date (Data in $) Dividend per Share (annual) Avg. No. Analysts
2024-07-31
2023-07-31
2022-07-31 2.65 14.00
2021-07-31 2.41 23.00
2020-07-31 2.23 19.00
2019-12-10
LSE:FERG Past Annualized Dividends Data
Date (Data in $) Dividend per share (annual) Avg. Yield (%)
2019-11-18 2.082 2.384
2018-10-11 1.893 2.683
2018-10-02 1.893 2.484
2017-10-03 1.474 1.991
2017-09-29 1.539 2.227
2016-09-29 1.273 2.096
2016-09-27 1.371 2.342
2015-10-23 1.233 2.366
2015-09-29 1.449 2.427
2014-10-22 1.275 2.109
2014-09-30 1.387 2.598
2013-10-24 3.055 5.487
2013-10-01 3.057 5.464
2013-03-26 1.003 1.921
2012-10-29 1.018 2.100
2012-10-02 1.090 2.232
2011-10-04 1.046 2.719
2011-06-01 0.525 1.762
2011-03-29 0.547 1.432
2009-09-28 0.000 0.000
2009-03-06 0.000 0.000

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Ferguson has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years and during this time payments have been volatile (annual drop of over 20%).
  • Dividend payments have increased, but Ferguson only paid a dividend in the past 9 years.
Current Payout to shareholders
What portion of Ferguson's earnings are paid to the shareholders as a dividend.
  • Dividends paid are well covered by earnings (2.2x coverage).
Future Payout to shareholders
  • Dividends after 3 years are expected to be well covered by earnings (2.2x coverage).
X
Income/ dividend checks
We assess Ferguson's dividend by checking for:
  1. Firstly is the company paying a notable dividend (greater than 1.1%) - if not then the rest of the checks are ignored.
  2. Is current dividend yield above the bottom 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  3. Is current dividend yield above the top 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  4. Have they paid a dividend for 10 years, and during this period has the dividend been volatile (drop of more than 25%)? (1 check)
  5. If they have paid a dividend for 10 years has it increased in this time? (1 check)
  6. How sustainable is the dividend, can Ferguson afford to pay it from its earnings today and in 3 years (Payout ratio less than 90%)? (2 checks)
  7. Ferguson has a total score of 3/6, see the detailed checks below.


Full details on the Dividends part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

FERG Management

 What is the CEO of Ferguson's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have been around for and insider trading.
CEO
Kevin Murphy
COMPENSATION $2,285,000
TENURE AS CEO 0.1 years
CEO Bio

Mr. Kevin Murphy has been the Chief Executive Officer and Director of Ferguson Enterprises, Inc since August 01, 2017. Mr. Murphy served as Chief Executive Officer of USA at Ferguson plc since August 01, 2017 until November 19, 2019 and serves as its Executive Director since August 01, 2017. He serves as Group Chief Executive Officer at Ferguson plc since November 19, 2019. Mr. Murphy served as the Chief Operating Officer of Ferguson Enterprises, Inc. since August 2007 for the past 10 years. He joined Ferguson in 1999 as an Operations Manager through the acquisition of his family's business, Midwest Pipe and Supply. He served as General Manager of Ferguson's Columbus, Ohio Waterworks location and as Area Manager for the Northeast Waterworks region since 2001. In 2005, he served as Business Group Manager of Waterworks and as Vice President of Ferguson's Waterworks operation since 2006. Mr. Murphy is graduate of Miami University in 1992.

CEO Compensation
  • Kevin's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year, both up more than 20%.
  • Kevin's remuneration is lower than average for companies of similar size in United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Management Team Tenure

Average tenure of the Ferguson management team in years:

1.9
Average Tenure
  • The average tenure for the Ferguson management team is less than 2 years, this suggests a new team.
Management Team

Kevin Murphy

TITLE
CEO & Executive Director
COMPENSATION
$2M
TENURE
0.1 yrs

Mike Powell

TITLE
Group CFO & Executive Director
COMPENSATION
$2M
AGE
51
TENURE
2.5 yrs

Marie Wall

TITLE
Group Director of Corporate Finance

Mike Sajor

TITLE
Group Chief Information Officer
TENURE
1.9 yrs

Mark Fearon

TITLE
Director of Corporate Communications & Investor Relations

Ian Graham

TITLE
Group General Counsel
TENURE
0.6 yrs

Mike Ward

TITLE
Head of Corporate Communications

Simon Oakland

TITLE
Group Head of Corporate Development & CEO of Canada

Sammie Long

TITLE
Chief Human Resources Officer
AGE
51
TENURE
2.9 yrs

John Wilcox

TITLE
Senior Vice President of Alignment and Coordination - Wolseley North America
Board of Directors Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Ferguson board of directors in years:

2.5
Average Tenure
56
Average Age
  • The average tenure for the Ferguson board of directors is less than 3 years, this suggests a new board.
Board of Directors

Geoff Drabble

TITLE
Independent Non Executive Chairman
COMPENSATION
$18K
AGE
60
TENURE
0.1 yrs

Kevin Murphy

TITLE
CEO & Executive Director
COMPENSATION
$2M
TENURE
2.3 yrs

Mike Powell

TITLE
Group CFO & Executive Director
COMPENSATION
$2M
AGE
51
TENURE
2.5 yrs

Alan Murray

TITLE
Senior Independent Non Executive Director
COMPENSATION
$96K
AGE
65
TENURE
6.2 yrs

Jacky Simmonds

TITLE
Independent Non-Executive Director
COMPENSATION
$94K
AGE
56
TENURE
5.6 yrs

Gareth Davis

TITLE
Independent Non Executive Director
COMPENSATION
$403K
AGE
69
TENURE
16.4 yrs

Tessa Bamford

TITLE
Independent Non-Executive Director
COMPENSATION
$79K
AGE
60
TENURE
8.8 yrs

Nadia Shouraboura

TITLE
Independent Non-Executive Director
COMPENSATION
$79K
AGE
49
TENURE
2.4 yrs

Cathy Halligan

TITLE
Independent Non-Executive Director
COMPENSATION
$50K
AGE
56
TENURE
0.9 yrs

Tom Schmitt

TITLE
Independent Non Executive Director
COMPENSATION
$42K
AGE
54
TENURE
0.8 yrs
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
  • No 3 month open market individual insider trading information.
Recent Insider Transactions
Announced Type Name Entity Role Start End Shares Max Price (£) Value (£)
X
Management checks
We assess Ferguson's management by checking for:
  1. Is the CEO's compensation unreasonable compared to market cap? (1 check)
  2. Has the CEO's compensation increased more than 20% whilst the EPS is down more then 20%? (1 check)
  3. Is the average tenure of the management team less than 2 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the average tenure of the board of directors team less than 3 years? (1 check)
  5. Ferguson has a total score of 0/6, this is not included on the snowflake, see the detailed checks below.


Note: We use the top 6 management executives and board members in our calculations.

Note 2: Insider trading include any internal stakeholders and these transactions .

Full details on the Management part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

FERG News

Simply Wall St News

These Fundamentals Make Ferguson plc (LON:FERG) Truly Worth Looking At

Looking at the company as a whole, as a potential stock investment, I believe FERG has a lot to offer. … Take a look at our free research report of analyst consensus for FERG’s outlook. … The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether FERG is currently mispriced by the market.

Simply Wall St -

Don't Sell Ferguson plc (LON:FERG) Before You Read This

Check out our latest analysis for Ferguson How Do I Calculate Ferguson's Price To Earnings Ratio? … The formula for P/E is: Price to Earnings Ratio = Share Price (in reporting currency) ÷ Earnings per Share (EPS) Or for Ferguson: P/E of 17.68 = $72.47 (Note: this is the share price in the reporting currency, namely, USD ) ÷ $4.1 (Based on the trailing twelve months to January 2019.) Is A High P/E Ratio Good? … Remember: P/E Ratios Don't Consider The Balance Sheet It's important to note that the P/E ratio considers the market capitalization, not the enterprise value.

Simply Wall St -

Estimating The Fair Value Of Ferguson plc (LON:FERG)

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Ferguson plc (LON:FERG) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. … A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars: 10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Levered FCF ($, Millions) $948.4m $1.0b $1.1b $1.1b $1.2b $1.2b $1.3b $1.3b $1.3b $1.3b Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x14 Analyst x11 Analyst x3 Analyst x1 Est @ 4.36% Est @ 3.42% Est @ 2.76% Est @ 2.3% Est @ 1.98% Est @ 1.75% Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.86% $879.3 $870.2 $846.9 $834.2 $807.2 $774.0 $737.4 $699.4 $661.3 $623.9 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= $7.7b We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. … Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$1.3b × (1 + 1.2%) ÷ (7.9% – 1.2%) = US$20b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = $US$20b ÷ ( 1 + 7.9%)10 = $9.52b The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is $17.26b.

Simply Wall St -

Would Ferguson plc (LON:FERG) Be Valuable To Income Investors?

Yet sometimes, investors buy a stock for its dividend and lose money because the share price falls by more than they earned in dividend payments. … Dividend Growth Potential With a relatively unstable dividend, it's even more important to see if earnings per share (EPS) are growing. … Unfortunately, the company has not been able to generate earnings per share growth, and cut its dividend at least once in the past.

Simply Wall St -

Ferguson plc (LON:FERG) Delivered A Better ROE Than Its Industry

The formula for ROE is: Return on Equity = Net Profit ÷ Shareholders' Equity Or for Ferguson: 22% = US$941m ÷ US$4.3b (Based on the trailing twelve months to January 2019.) It's easy to understand the 'net profit' part of that equation, but 'shareholders' equity' requires further explanation. … Does Ferguson Have A Good Return On Equity? … Companies that can achieve high returns on equity without too much debt are generally of good quality.

Simply Wall St -

Is Ferguson (LON:FERG) A Risky Investment?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. … Because it carries more debt than cash, we think it's worth watching Ferguson's balance sheet over time. … If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

Simply Wall St -

Should You Worry About Ferguson plc's (LON:FERG) CEO Pay?

At the time of writing our data says that Ferguson plc has a market cap of UK£13b, and is paying total annual CEO compensation of US$4.1m. … We looked at a group of companies with market capitalizations over UK£6.3b and the median CEO total compensation was UK£3.9m. … I think that the total shareholder return of 54%, over three years, would leave most Ferguson plc shareholders smiling.

Simply Wall St -

How Many Ferguson plc (LON:FERG) Shares Do Institutions Own?

See our latest analysis for Ferguson LSE:FERG Ownership Summary, June 14th 2019 What Does The Institutional Ownership Tell Us About Ferguson? … Insider Ownership Of Ferguson The definition of company insiders can be subjective, and does vary between jurisdictions. … Next Steps: It's always worth thinking about the different groups who own shares in a company.

Simply Wall St -

Is Ferguson plc (LON:FERG) A Financially Sound Company?

On top of this, FERG has generated cash from operations of US$896m in the last twelve months, resulting in an operating cash to total debt ratio of 35%, indicating that FERG’s current level of operating cash is high enough to cover debt. … With current liabilities at US$3.6b, it appears that the company has maintained a safe level of current assets to meet its obligations, with the current ratio last standing at 1.84x. … The current ratio is the number you get when you divide current assets by current liabilities.

Simply Wall St -

Ferguson plc (LON:FERG): Time For A Financial Health Check

Check out our latest analysis for Ferguson Does FERG Produce Much Cash Relative To Its Debt? … Moreover, FERG has generated US$896m in operating cash flow in the last twelve months, resulting in an operating cash to total debt ratio of 35%, indicating that FERG’s operating cash is sufficient to cover its debt. … At the current liabilities level of US$3.6b, the company has been able to meet these commitments with a current assets level of US$6.7b, leading to a 1.84x current account ratio.

Simply Wall St -

FERG Company Info

Description

Ferguson plc distributes plumbing and heating products in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Central Europe. It offers plumbing and heating solutions to customers in the residential, municipal, civil and industrial markets, and commercial sectors for repair, maintenance, and improvement (RMI), as well as new construction markets. The company also distributes pipes, valves, fittings, hydrants, meters, and related water management products, as well as offers related services, such as water line tapping and pipe fusion services. In addition, it distributes heating, ventilation, air conditioning, refrigeration equipment, and parts and supplies to specialist contractors in the residential and commercial markets for repair and replacement; and PVF products to industrial customers. Further, the company fabricates and supplies fire protection systems and bespoke fabrication services to commercial contractors for new construction and renovation projects, as well as offers products, services, and solutions to enable maintenance of facilities across various RMI markets. Additionally, it offers supply chain management solutions for PVF; and industrial maintenance, repair, and operations specializing in delivering automation, instrumentation, engineered products, and turn-key solutions. The company also sells its home improvement products directly to consumers, as well as through a network of online stores. In addition, it operates its B2B business primarily under the Ferguson brand; and B2C business under the Build.com brand. Further, the company provides products and services for maintenance of multi-family properties, government agencies, hospitality, education, healthcare, and other facilities. It operates a network of 2,280 branches and 19 distribution centers. Ferguson plc was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Wokingham, the United Kingdom.

Details
Name: Ferguson plc
FERG
Exchange: LSE
Founded: 1887
£15,112,020,039
224,413,722
Website: http://www.fergusonplc.com
Address: Ferguson plc
1020 Eskdale Road,
Winnersh Triangle,
Wokingham,
Berkshire, RG41 5TS,
United Kingdom
Listings
Exchange Symbol Ticker Symbol Security Exchange Country Currency Listed on
LSE FERG Ordinary Shares London Stock Exchange GB GBP 01. Jan 1992
OTCPK WOSC.F Ordinary Shares Pink Sheets LLC US USD 01. Jan 1992
BST 24W5 Ordinary Shares Boerse-Stuttgart DE EUR 01. Jan 1992
OTCPK FERG.Y SPONSRD ADS NEW Pink Sheets LLC US USD 31. May 2001
LSE FERG ORD GBP0.11403197 London Stock Exchange GB GBP 11. Jun 2018
OTCPK FERG.Y SPONSRD ADS NEW Pink Sheets LLC US USD 31. May 2001
BATS-CHIXE FERGL Old Ordinary Shares BATS 'Chi-X Europe' GB GBP 01. Jan 1992
Number of employees
Current staff
Staff numbers
35,000
Ferguson employees.
Industry
Trading Companies and Distributors
Capital Goods
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
Area Date (UTC time)
Company Analysis updated: 2019/12/10 23:23
End of day share price update: 2019/12/10 00:00
Last estimates confirmation: 2019/12/10
Last earnings filing: 2019/10/18
Last earnings reported: 2019/07/31
Last annual earnings reported: 2019/07/31


All dates and times in UTC. All financial data provided by Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.