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Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings

DB:SCD1
Snowflake Description

Reasonable growth potential and fair value.

The Snowflake is generated from 30 checks in 5 different areas, read more below.
SCD1
DB
HK$13B
Market Cap
  1. Home
  2. DE
  3. Materials
Company description

Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited, a conglomerate, engages in pulp production, paper making, finance, forestry, mining, energy, logistics, construction materials, hotel operation, and other businesses in Mainland China and internationally. The last earnings update was 59 days ago. More info.


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SCD1 Share Price and Events
7 Day Returns
3.6%
DB:SCD1
6.5%
Europe Forestry
2.8%
DE Market
1 Year Returns
-21.2%
DB:SCD1
-11.9%
Europe Forestry
3%
DE Market
SCD1 Shareholder Return
  7 Day 30 Day 90 Day 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings (SCD1) 3.6% 3.6% - -21.2% -33% 71.2%
Europe Forestry 6.5% 1.9% 8.8% -11.9% 1% 49.9%
DE Market 2.8% 0.2% 1.3% 3% 8% 23.6%
1 Year Return vs Industry and Market
  • SCD1 underperformed the Forestry industry which returned -11.9% over the past year.
  • SCD1 underperformed the Market in Germany which returned 3% over the past year.
Price Volatility
SCD1
Industry
5yr Volatility vs Market

SCD1 Value

 Is Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?

Value is all about what a company is worth versus what price it is available for. If you went into a grocery store and all the bananas were on sale at half price, they could be considered undervalued.
INTRINSIC VALUE BASED ON FUTURE CASH FLOWS
Here we compare the current share price of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings to its discounted cash flow analysis.value.

The discounted cash flow value is simply looking at what the company is worth today, based on estimates of how much money it is expected to make in the future.
Raw Data

Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings.

DB:SCD1 Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 4 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 12.1%
Perpetual Growth Rate 10-Year DE Government Bond Rate 0.2%

An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for DB:SCD1
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 10-Year DE Govt Bond Rate 0.2%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 6%
Forestry Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 1.37
Re-levered Beta = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
= 1.367 (1 + (1- 25%) (525.3%))
4.856
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm)
2
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 0.23% + (2 * 5.96%)
12.15%

Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for DB:SCD1 using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

Note: Free cash flow to equity valuations ignore the company's cash or debt.

DB:SCD1 DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (CNY, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 12.15%)
2020 12,458.89 Est @ 29.76% 11,109.33
2021 15,063.06 Est @ 20.9% 11,976.50
2022 17,277.30 Est @ 14.7% 12,249.02
2023 19,066.94 Est @ 10.36% 12,053.55
2024 20,462.49 Est @ 7.32% 11,534.55
2025 21,524.87 Est @ 5.19% 10,819.10
2026 22,321.87 Est @ 3.7% 10,004.37
2027 22,915.69 Est @ 2.66% 9,158.00
2028 23,358.10 Est @ 1.93% 8,323.65
2029 23,689.74 Est @ 1.42% 7,527.40
Present value of next 10 years cash flows CN¥104,755.00
DB:SCD1 DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= CN¥23,689.74 × (1 + 0.23%) ÷ (12.15% – 0.23%)
CN¥199,192.59
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
= CN¥199,192.59 ÷ (1 + 12.15%)10
CN¥63,293.32
DB:SCD1 Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= CN¥104,755.00 + CN¥63,293.32
CN¥168,048.32
Equity Value per Share
(CNY)
= Total value / Shares Outstanding
= CN¥168,048.32 / 2,904.61
CN¥57.86
DB:SCD1 Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Exchange Rate CNY/HKD
(Reporting currency to currency of SZSE:200488)
1.107
Value per Share
(HKD)
= Value per Share in CNY x Exchange Rate (CNY/HKD)
= CN¥57.86 x 1.107
HK$64.03
Non-primary Listing Adjustment Factor 1 share in DB:SCD1 represents 0.11772x of SZSE:200488
(This could be a different class, a depositary receipt, a different currency, or all of these things.)
0.11772x
Value per Share
(Listing Adjusted, EUR)
= Value per Share (HKD) x Listing Adjustment Factor
= HK$ 64.03 x 0.11772
€7.54
Value per share (EUR) From above. €7.54
Current discount Discount to share price of €0.37
= -1 x (€0.37 - €7.54) / €7.54
95.1%

Learn more about our DCF calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model .

Current Discount
Amount off the current price Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings is available for.
Intrinsic value
>50%
Share price is €0.37 vs Future cash flow value of €7.54
Current Discount Checks
For Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the current price. Less than 40% is even better.
  • Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
  • Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.

The amount the stock market is willing to pay for Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's earnings, growth and assets is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Are Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's earnings available for a low price, and how does this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Raw Data
DB:SCD1 PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Earnings Per Share * Company Filings (2019-06-30) in CNY CN¥-0.14
SZSE:200488 Share Price ** SZSE (2019-10-09) in HKD HK$3.16
SZSE:200488 Share Price converted to CNY reporting currency Exchange rate (HKD/ CNY) 0.904 CN¥2.86
Europe Forestry Industry PE Ratio Median Figure of 31 Publicly-Listed Forestry Companies 10.37x
Germany Market PE Ratio Median Figure of 417 Publicly-Listed Companies 19.72x

* Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual GAAP earnings per share excluding extraordinary items.

** Primary Listing of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings.

DB:SCD1 PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PE Ratio

= SZSE:200488 Share Price ÷ EPS (both in CNY)

= 2.86 ÷ -0.14

-19.76x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings is loss making, we can't compare its value to the Europe Forestry industry average.
  • Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings is loss making, we can't compare the value of its earnings to the Germany market.
Price based on expected Growth
Does Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's expected growth come at a high price?
Raw Data
DB:SCD1 PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
PE Ratio See PE Ratio Section -19.76x
Net Income Annual Growth Rate See Future Growth Section.
Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 4 Analysts
41.8%per year
Europe Forestry Industry PEG Ratio Median Figure of 19 Publicly-Listed Forestry Companies 0.3x
Germany Market PEG Ratio Median Figure of 265 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.39x

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Unable to calculate PEG ratio for Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings, we can't assess if its growth is good value.
Price based on value of assets
What value do investors place on Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's assets?
Raw Data
DB:SCD1 PB (Price to Book) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Book Value per Share Company Filings (2019-06-30) in CNY CN¥6.88
SZSE:200488 Share Price * SZSE (2019-10-09) in HKD HK$3.16
SZSE:200488 Share Price converted to CNY reporting currency Exchange rate (HKD/ CNY) 0.904 CN¥2.86
Europe Forestry Industry PB Ratio Median Figure of 39 Publicly-Listed Forestry Companies 1.17x
Germany Market PB Ratio Median Figure of 598 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.74x
DB:SCD1 PB (Price to Book) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PB Ratio

= SZSE:200488 Share Price ÷ Book Value per Share (both in CNY)

= 2.86 ÷ 6.88

0.41x

* Primary Listing of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings.

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings is good value based on assets compared to the Europe Forestry industry average.
X
Value checks
We assess Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's value by looking at:
  1. Is the discounted cash flow value less than 20%, or 40% of the share price? (2 checks) ( Click here or on bar chart for details of DCF calculation. )
  2. Is the PE ratio less than the market average, and/ or less than the Forestry industry average (and greater than 0)? (2 checks)
  3. Is the PEG ratio within a reasonable range (0 to 1)? (1 check)
  4. Is the PB ratio less than the Forestry industry average (and greater than 0)? (1 check)
  5. Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings has a total score of 3/6, see the detailed checks below.

    Note: We use GAAP Earnings per Share in all our calculations including PE and PEG Ratio.

    Full details on the Value part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

SCD1 Future Performance

 How is Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?

The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past performance, by looking at estimated growth and how much profit it is expected to make.

Future estimates come from professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get it right!
Annual Growth Rate
41.8%
Expected annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
Is Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings expected to grow at an attractive rate?
  • Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's earnings growth is expected to exceed the low risk savings rate of 0.2%.
Growth vs Market Checks
  • Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's earnings growth is expected to exceed the Germany market average.
  • Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's revenue growth is expected to exceed the Germany market average.
Annual Growth Rates Comparison
Raw Data
DB:SCD1 Future Growth Rates Data Sources
Data Point Source Value (per year)
DB:SCD1 Future Earnings Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 4 Analysts 41.8%
DB:SCD1 Future Revenue Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Revenue of 4 Analysts 5.5%
Europe Forestry Industry Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 3.2%
Europe Forestry Industry Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 1.2%
Germany Market Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 12.8%
Germany Market Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 5%

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Learn more about our growth rate calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model.

Analysts growth expectations
Raw Data
DB:SCD1 Analysts Growth Expectations Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (3 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 4 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
All numbers in CNY Millions and using Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
DB:SCD1 Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in CNY Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income * Avg. No. Analysts
2021-12-31 30,683 7,533 2,990 3
2020-12-31 29,861 7,442 2,492 4
2019-12-31 27,410 5,272 2,140 1
DB:SCD1 Past Financials Data
Date (Data in CNY Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income *
2019-06-30 26,673 12,054 -265
2019-03-31 27,794 14,257 593
2018-12-31 28,876 14,100 1,484
2018-09-30 31,036 10,710 2,936
2018-06-30 31,275 8,882 3,322
2018-03-31 30,440 3,091 3,362
2018-01-01 29,472 24 3,282
2017-09-30 28,264 3,660 3,156
2017-06-30 26,050 738 2,805
2017-03-31 24,229 4,290 2,299
2016-12-31 22,907 2,153 1,999
2016-09-30 21,919 -4,217 2,014

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Super high growth metrics
High Growth Checks
  • Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's earnings are expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.
  • Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's revenue is expected to grow by 5.5% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Raw Data
DB:SCD1 Past and Future Earnings per Share
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (3 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 4 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below

All data from Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

DB:SCD1 Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in CNY Millions) EPS * EPS High Estimate EPS Low Estimate Avg. No. Analysts
2021-12-31
2020-12-31
2019-12-31
DB:SCD1 Past Financials Data
Date (Data in CNY Millions) EPS *
2019-06-30 -0.14
2019-03-31 0.22
2018-12-31 0.51
2018-09-30 0.83
2018-06-30 0.91
2018-03-31 1.14
2018-01-01 1.13
2017-09-30 0.95
2017-06-30 0.87
2017-03-31 0.74
2016-12-31 0.66
2016-09-30 0.62

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance in 3 years
In the same way as past performance we look at the future estimated return (profit) compared to the available funds. We do this looking forward 3 years.
  • Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings is not expected to efficiently use shareholders’ funds in the future (Return on Equity less than 20%).
X
Future performance checks
We assess Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's future performance by looking at:
  1. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the low risk savings rate, plus a premium to keep pace with inflation?
  2. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in earnings of the Europe market? (1 check)
  3. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in revenue of the Europe market? (1 check)
  4. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  6. Is the Return on Equity in 3 years expected to be over 20%? (1 check)
Some of the above checks will fail if the company is expected to be loss making in the relevant year.
Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings has a total score of 4/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note 1: We use GAAP Net Income Excluding Exceptional Items for our Earnings in all our calculations.

Full details on the Future part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

SCD1 Past Performance

  How has Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings performed over the past 5 years?

The past performance of a company can be measured by how much growth it has experienced and how much profit it makes relative to the funds and assets it has available.
Past earnings growth
Below we compare Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's growth in the last year to its industry (Forestry).
Past Earnings growth analysis
We also check if the company has grown in the past 5 years, and whether it has maintained that growth in the year.
  • Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings does not make a profit even though their year on year earnings growth rate was positive over the past 5 years.
  • Unable to compare Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's 1-year earnings growth to the 5-year average as it is not currently profitable.
  • Unable to compare Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's 1-year growth to the Europe Forestry industry average as it is not currently profitable.
Earnings and Revenue History
Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's revenue and profit over the past 5 years is shown below, any years where they have experienced a loss will show up in red.
Raw Data

All data from Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

DB:SCD1 Past Revenue, Cash Flow and Net Income Data
Date (Data in CNY Millions) Revenue Net Income * G+A Expenses R&D Expenses
2019-06-30 26,673.07 -264.66 2,364.04 883.34
2019-03-31 27,793.78 593.33 2,202.08 904.45
2018-12-31 28,875.76 1,483.55 2,250.91 929.87
2018-09-30 31,036.02 2,935.80 2,338.51 1,001.52
2018-06-30 31,274.55 3,321.60 1,865.84 1,495.32
2018-03-31 30,439.99 3,362.47 2,132.16 1,235.50
2018-01-01 29,472.45 3,282.48 2,301.91 1,017.31
2017-09-30 28,264.26 3,155.93 2,430.60 738.90
2017-06-30 26,049.99 2,804.93 3,070.90
2017-03-31 24,229.46 2,298.97 2,910.00
2016-12-31 22,907.12 1,998.58 2,774.54
2016-09-30 21,918.74 2,014.06 2,583.73
2016-06-30 21,129.57 1,684.00 2,554.10
2016-03-31 20,737.18 1,327.22 2,533.73
2015-12-31 20,241.91 1,021.22 2,502.58
2015-09-30 19,957.17 725.33 2,464.22
2015-06-30 19,738.35 539.13 2,407.50
2015-03-31 19,480.26 520.07 2,311.98
2014-12-31 19,101.68 505.20 2,228.53
2014-09-30 19,375.43 521.86 2,082.03
2014-06-30 19,443.01 619.71 2,076.65
2014-03-31 19,543.15 720.52 2,163.72
2013-12-31 20,388.89 710.66 2,201.79
2013-09-30 19,849.30 617.88 2,288.58
2013-06-30 19,825.13 460.20 2,270.94
2013-03-31 19,933.18 277.08 2,201.81
2012-12-31 19,761.68 221.03 2,218.58

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance last year
We want to ensure a company is making the most of what it has available. This is done by comparing the return (profit) to a company's available funds, assets and capital.
  • Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings has not efficiently used shareholders’ funds last year (Return on Equity less than 20%).
  • Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings used its assets less efficiently than the Europe Forestry industry average last year based on Return on Assets.
  • It is difficult to establish if Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings improved its use of capital last year versus 3 years ago (Return on Capital Employed) as it is currently loss-making.
X
Past performance checks
We assess Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
  1. Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
  2. Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the Forestry industry? (1 check)
  3. Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
  6. Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings has a total score of 0/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.

Full details on the Past part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

SCD1 Health

 How is Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's financial health and their level of debt?

A company's financial position is much like your own financial position, it includes everything you own (assets) and owe (liabilities).

The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's finances.

The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Net Worth
  • Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's short term (1 year) commitments are greater than its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
  • Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's cash and other short term assets cover its long term commitments.
Balance sheet
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's finances. If any of them are yellow this indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the checks below.
Assets
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
  • High level of physical assets or inventory.
  • Debt is not covered by short term assets, assets are 0.9x debt.
Historical Debt
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t bad, however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest on its debts this may have impacts in the future.

The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to see the red area (debt) decreasing.

If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Raw Data

All data from Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago.

DB:SCD1 Past Debt and Equity Data
Date (Data in CNY Millions) Total Equity Total Debt Cash & Short Term Investments
2019-06-30 25,309.53 61,516.95 2,009.06
2019-03-31 25,965.54 57,393.09 20,195.95
2018-12-31 25,871.69 59,223.60 2,381.56
2018-09-30 26,216.91 61,167.61 16,551.31
2018-06-30 28,967.89 60,278.70 3,530.99
2018-03-31 30,065.61 60,538.57 15,202.14
2018-01-01 30,274.18 59,361.64 2,898.41
2017-09-30 26,994.89 56,253.16 14,767.29
2017-06-30 23,144.05 56,031.42 2,421.49
2017-03-31 23,202.79 51,491.75 11,237.87
2016-12-31 22,564.86 47,650.99 1,979.86
2016-09-30 22,337.44 51,310.95 11,556.86
2016-06-30 19,688.50 54,456.87 3,567.44
2016-03-31 19,918.32 54,355.47 10,267.02
2015-12-31 17,258.93 50,572.91 1,888.11
2015-09-30 16,926.04 44,780.23 7,275.66
2015-06-30 14,346.70 40,053.40 725.18
2015-03-31 14,422.73 36,584.39 6,042.54
2014-12-31 14,348.07 34,310.46 976.10
2014-09-30 14,197.20 30,171.10 2,899.95
2014-06-30 14,103.30 29,287.60 1,911.35
2014-03-31 14,537.84 28,621.75 2,664.57
2013-12-31 14,638.35 27,089.63 726.53
2013-09-30 14,477.20 22,174.82 3,096.07
2013-06-30 14,282.27 25,735.81 1,598.75
2013-03-31 14,471.69 24,969.41 3,757.59
2012-12-31 14,345.42 26,618.21 2,343.55
  • Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's level of debt (218.4%) compared to net worth is high (greater than 40%).
  • The level of debt compared to net worth has increased over the past 5 years (207.7% vs 218.4% today).
  • Debt is well covered by operating cash flow (21.8%, greater than 20% of total debt).
  • Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings is making a loss, therefore interest payments are not well covered by earnings.
X
Financial health checks
We assess Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's financial health by checking for:
  1. Are short term assets greater than short term liabilities? (1 check)
  2. Are short term assets greater than long term liabilities? (1 check)
  3. Has the debt to equity ratio increased in the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the debt to equity ratio over 40%? (1 check)
  5. Is the debt covered by operating cash flow? (1 check)
  6. Are earnings greater than 5x the interest on debt (if company pays interest at all)? (1 check)
  7. Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings has a total score of 2/6, see the detailed checks below.
For companies that are loss making and have been so on average in the past we replace the last 2 checks with:
  1. Does cash and short term investments cover stable operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)
  2. Does cash and short term investments cover growing operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)


Full details on the Health part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

SCD1 Dividends

 What is Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividends are regular cash payments to you from the company, similar to a bank paying you interest on a savings account.
Annual Dividend Income
Dividend payments
8.4%
Current annual income from Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings dividends.
If you bought €2,000 of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings shares you are expected to receive €168 in your first year as a dividend.
Dividend Amount
Here we look how much dividend is being paid, if any. Is it above what you can get in a savings account? It is up there with the best dividend paying companies?
  • Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's pays a higher dividend yield than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in Germany (1.46%).
  • Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's dividend is above the markets top 25% of dividend payers in Germany (3.86%).
Annualized Historical and Future Dividends
It is important to see if the dividend for a company is stable, and not wildly increasing/decreasing each year. This graph shows you the historical rate to count toward your assessment of the stock.

We also check to see if the dividend has increased in the past 10 years.
Raw Data
DB:SCD1 Annualized Past and Future Dividends
Data Point Source Value
Past Annualized Dividend Yield S&P Global Market Data See Below
Past Dividends per Share Company Filings/ Annualized Dividend Payments See Below
Future Dividends per Share Estimates Average of up to 4 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
Europe Forestry Industry Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 24 Stocks 4.4%
Germany Market Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 337 Stocks 3.1%
Germany Minimum Threshold Dividend Yield 10th Percentile 0.7%
Germany Bottom 25% Dividend Yield 25th Percentile 1.5%
Germany Top 25% Dividend Yield 75th Percentile 3.9%

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Note all dividend per share amounts are annualized and not quarterly or other period.

DB:SCD1 Future Dividends Estimate Data
Date (Data in CN¥) Dividend per Share (annual) Avg. No. Analysts
2021-12-31
2020-12-31
2019-12-31
DB:SCD1 Past Annualized Dividends Data
Date (Data in CN¥) Dividend per share (annual) Avg. Yield (%)
2019-06-12 0.240 7.853
2018-06-14 0.400 9.565
2017-06-01 0.400 5.941
2016-05-19 0.200 4.683
2015-05-18 0.093 3.327
2014-06-30 0.200 8.913
2013-07-03 0.040 1.994
2012-07-11 0.100 5.717
2011-03-30 0.200 8.705
2011-01-17 0.200 5.451
2010-04-13 0.200 5.740
2009-04-09 0.033 1.060
2009-04-08 0.033 1.349

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Dividends per share have been volatile in the past 10 years (annual drop of over 20%).
  • Dividends per share have increased over the past 10 years.
Current Payout to shareholders
What portion of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's earnings are paid to the shareholders as a dividend.
  • The company is paying a dividend however it is incurring a loss.
Future Payout to shareholders
  • Insufficient estimate data to determine if a dividend will be paid in 3 years and that it will be sustainable.
X
Income/ dividend checks
We assess Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's dividend by checking for:
  1. Firstly is the company paying a notable dividend (greater than 0.7%) - if not then the rest of the checks are ignored.
  2. Is current dividend yield above the bottom 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  3. Is current dividend yield above the top 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  4. Have they paid a dividend for 10 years, and during this period has the dividend been volatile (drop of more than 25%)? (1 check)
  5. If they have paid a dividend for 10 years has it increased in this time? (1 check)
  6. How sustainable is the dividend, can Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings afford to pay it from its earnings today and in 3 years (Payout ratio less than 90%)? (2 checks)
  7. Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings has a total score of 3/6, see the detailed checks below.


Full details on the Dividends part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

SCD1 Management

 What is the CEO of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have been around for and insider trading.
CEO
Weixian Li
COMPENSATION CN¥0
AGE 37
TENURE AS CEO 0.9 years
CEO Bio

Mr. Li Weixian serves as General Manager at Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited since November 9, 2018. He joined the Company in 2002 and had held various positions in the Company such as the deputy general manager of Shenzhen Coated Paper Company (a sale company of the Company), the manager of Shandong Chenming Paper Sales Company Limited, the vice chairman of Household Paper Company, the deputy marketing director and marketing director of Sales Company and the vice president of the Group. He graduated with a bachelor degree.

CEO Compensation
  • Insufficient data for Weixian to compare compensation growth.
  • Insufficient data for Weixian to establish whether their remuneration is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in Germany.
Management Team Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings management team in years:

6.4
Average Tenure
47.5
Average Age
  • The average tenure for the Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings management team is over 5 years, this suggests they are a seasoned and experienced team.
Management Team

Hongguo Chen

TITLE
Chairman
COMPENSATION
CN¥5M
AGE
54

Weixian Li

TITLE
General Manager
AGE
37
TENURE
0.9 yrs

Changqing Hu

TITLE
Deputy GM & Vice Chairman
COMPENSATION
CN¥2M
AGE
53
TENURE
6.4 yrs

Feng Li

TITLE
Chief Marketing Officer & Deputy GM
COMPENSATION
CN¥1M
AGE
46

Xueqin Li

TITLE
Deputy General Manager
AGE
53
TENURE
16.6 yrs

Zhenzhong Li

TITLE
Deputy General Manager
AGE
45
TENURE
6.4 yrs

Zhang Qingzhi

TITLE
Deputy General Manager
AGE
53
TENURE
3.4 yrs

Gang Chen

TITLE
Executive Director
COMPENSATION
CN¥2M
AGE
46

Shiu Poon

TITLE
Company Secretary
AGE
49
TENURE
12.5 yrs

Li Dong

TITLE
Chairman of Supervisory Committee
AGE
36
TENURE
1 yrs
Board of Directors Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings board of directors in years:

0.3
Average Tenure
47
Average Age
  • The average tenure for the Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings board of directors is less than 3 years, this suggests a new board.
Board of Directors

Hongguo Chen

TITLE
Chairman
COMPENSATION
CN¥5M
AGE
54
TENURE
18.1 yrs

Changqing Hu

TITLE
Deputy GM & Vice Chairman
COMPENSATION
CN¥2M
AGE
53
TENURE
1.3 yrs

Gang Chen

TITLE
Executive Director
COMPENSATION
CN¥2M
AGE
46
TENURE
1.3 yrs

Li Dong

TITLE
Chairman of Supervisory Committee
AGE
36

Xingchun Li

TITLE
Executive Director
AGE
53
TENURE
0.3 yrs

Ailing Pan

TITLE
Shareholders Representative Supervisor
COMPENSATION
CN¥120K
AGE
54
TENURE
0.3 yrs

Chuanxuan Li

TITLE
Non-Executive Director
AGE
41
TENURE
0.3 yrs

Jianfei Sun

TITLE
Independent Non-Executive Director
AGE
46
TENURE
0.3 yrs

Biao Yang

TITLE
Independent Non-Executive Director
AGE
39
TENURE
0.3 yrs

Meiqun Yin

TITLE
Independent Non-Executive Director
AGE
48
TENURE
0.3 yrs
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
  • No 3 month open market individual insider trading information.
Recent Insider Transactions
Announced Type Name Entity Role Start End Shares Max Price (€) Value (€)
30. May 19 Buy Weixian Li Individual 28. May 19 28. May 19 159,000 €0.42 €66,338
X
Management checks
We assess Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings's management by checking for:
  1. Is the CEO's compensation unreasonable compared to market cap? (1 check)
  2. Has the CEO's compensation increased more than 20% whilst the EPS is down more then 20%? (1 check)
  3. Is the average tenure of the management team less than 2 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the average tenure of the board of directors team less than 3 years? (1 check)
  5. Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings has a total score of 0/6, this is not included on the snowflake, see the detailed checks below.


Note: We use the top 6 management executives and board members in our calculations.

Note 2: Insider trading include any internal stakeholders and these transactions .

Full details on the Management part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

SCD1 News

Simply Wall St News

SCD1 Company Info

Description

Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited, a conglomerate, engages in pulp production, paper making, finance, forestry, mining, energy, logistics, construction materials, hotel operation, and other businesses in Mainland China and internationally. It operates in four segments: Machine-Made Paper, Financial Services, Magnesium ore, and Others. It offers offset, household, cultural, coated, newsprint, electrostatic copy, thermal paper, and glassine papers, as well as white paper boards. The company also provides financial leasing services; and manufactures, processes, and sells wood products, laminated boards, and fortified wooden floorboards. In addition, it generates and sells electric and thermal power; and provides cement, wall materials, panel, floor board, and coal, as well as purchases and sells waste. Further, the company is involved in the provision of catering services; hotel services; saplings growing, and processing and sale of timber and paper products; marine engineering project investment; and mining, transportation, logistics, arboriculture, customs declaration, property management, import and export trade, machinery manufacturing, printing and packaging, and investment management businesses. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Shouguang, the People’s Republic of China.

Details
Name: Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited
SCD1
Exchange: DB
Founded: 1993
HK$1,495,217,360
2,904,608,200
Website: http://www.chenmingpaper.com
Address: Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited
No. 2199 Nongsheng East Road,
Shouguang,
Shandong Province, 262705,
China
Listings
Exchange Symbol Ticker Symbol Security Exchange Country Currency Listed on
SZSE 200488 Foreign Shares-Domestically Listed Shenzhen Stock Exchange CN HKD 21. Jul 1997
SEHK 1812 Foreign Shares-Foreign Listed The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Ltd. HK HKD 18. Jun 2008
SZSE 000488 Domestic Shares Shenzhen Stock Exchange CN CNY 27. Oct 2000
DB SCD1 Foreign Shares-Foreign Listed Deutsche Boerse AG DE EUR 18. Jun 2008
SZSC 1812 Foreign Shares-Foreign Listed The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong - Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect HK HKD 18. Jun 2008
XSEC 000488 Domestic Shares Shenzhen Stock Exchange - Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect CN CNY 27. Oct 2000
Number of employees
Current staff
Staff numbers
15,191
Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings employees.
Industry
Paper Products
Materials
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
Area Date (UTC time)
Company Analysis updated: 2019/10/13 21:48
End of day share price update: 2019/10/09 00:00
Last estimates confirmation: 2019/09/23
Last earnings filing: 2019/08/15
Last earnings reported: 2019/06/30
Last annual earnings reported: 2018/12/31


All dates and times in UTC. All financial data provided by Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.