Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for DB:0W7 using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
Note: Free cash flow to equity valuations ignore the company's cash or debt.
DB:0W7 DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Wagners Holding's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Wagners Holding's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Wagners Holding's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Wagners Holding's earnings are expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.
Wagners Holding's revenue is expected to grow by 10.6% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Wagners Holding's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
1/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. Cameron Coleman has been the Chief Executive Officer at Wagners Holding Company Limited since July 2012. Mr. Coleman has been employed by Wagners for 21 years. Mr. Coleman has experience across all areas of the business and oversees more than 500 employees. He is integral in Wagners’ journey and has created a culture that has enabled Wagners to differentiate itself from its competitors. Mr. Coleman completed the General Management Program at Harvard Business School.
Cameron's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year, both up more than 20%.
Cameron's remuneration is about average for companies of similar size in Germany.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure of the
management team in years:
The average tenure for the Wagners Holding management team is over 5 years, this suggests they are a seasoned and experienced team.
Chief Executive Officer
Chief Financial Officer
General Counsel & Company Secretary
Human Resources Manager
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure of the
board of directors in years:
The average tenure for the Wagners Holding board of directors is less than 3 years, this suggests a new board.
Board of Directors
Independent Non-Executive Director
Lynda Kathryn O’Grady
Independent Non-Executive Director
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
More shares have been bought than sold by Wagners Holding individual insiders in the past 3 months.
Wagners Holding Company Limited produces and sells construction materials in Australia and internationally. It operates through two segments, Construction Materials and Services (CMS), and New Generation Building Materials (NGBM). The CMS segment primarily offers cement, flyash, ready-mix concrete, precast concrete products, aggregates, and reinforcing steel. It also provides mobile concrete, crushing, and haulage services through medium to long-term contracts. This segment serves customers in the construction, infrastructure, and resources industries. The NGBM segment provides new generation materials, including composite fiber technology materials and earth friendly concrete. The company also offers transport and logistics services, such as bulk and heavy haulage, container and ISO vessel transport, bulk powder transport, and general freight. In addition, it is involved in the provision and management of containers and vessels; and steel reinforcing and quarrying activities. Wagners Holding Company Limited was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Wellcamp, Australia.
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