Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for BST:0BQ using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
Note: Free cash flow to equity valuations ignore the company's cash or debt.
BST:0BQ DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Norske Skog's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Norske Skog's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Norske Skog's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Norske Skog's earnings are expected to decrease over the next 1-3 years, this is not considered high growth.
Norske Skog's revenue is expected to decrease over the next 1-3 years, this is not considered high growth.
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Norske Skog's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
5/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. Sven Ombudstvedt serves as Chief Executive Officer and President of Norske Skog ASA and served as its Chairman of the Board until 2019. Mr. Ombudstvedt served as the Chief Executive Officer and President of Norske Skogindustrier ASA since January 2010 until May 7, 2017. Mr. Ombudstvedt served as the Chief Financial Officer and Head of strategy of Yara International ASA from October 1, 2006 to July 4, 2008 and Head of upstream business from 2003 to October 1, 2006. He served as Finance Director of Yara International ASA since October 1, 2006 and also served as its Chief Executive Officer. He held a number of leading positions in Norsk Hydro from 1991 to 2003. He served as Senior Vice President of Upstream from 2003 to 2006. He served as Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategy at the Hydro Group from 2002 to 2003 and Deputy to Hydro Agri's Chief Operating Officer from 2000 to 2002, with commercial strategy and industrial restructuring as his main responsibility. Prior to 2000, he worked in several senior positions in Hydro Agri's European operations from 1993 to 1999 and also served as a Senior Systems Analyst on several large projects from 1991 to 1993. He serves as Chair of the Board at Norske Skogindustrier ASA since September 2017. Mr. Ombudstvedt serves as the Chairman of Norske Skog Saugbrugs As. He was the Chairman at PJSC PhosAgro (formerly, OJSC PhosAgro AG) since May 2011 until May 24, 2019 and has been its Independent Director since 2006. He has been a Board Member of TMG International AB since February 12, 2008. He served as a Director of Western Bulk AS. He serves as a Director of Trinidad Nitrogen Company. He served as a Director of Storm Real Estate AS. He served as a Director of Trafalgar House Pension Fund from 2005 to 2006, Qatar Fertilizer from 2005 to 2006, Norwegian Retail Concepts from 1998 to 1999, Strømsgodset Fotball ASA from 1998 to 1999. He served as a Director of Kemira GrowHow Oyj since October 22, 2007. Mr. Ombudstvedt earned a Bachelor of Business Administration from Pacific Lutheran University in Tacoma, Washington and a Master of International Management from the American Graduate School of International Management (Thunderbird) in Glendale, Arizona, USA.
Insufficient data for Sven to compare compensation growth.
Insufficient data for Sven to establish whether their remuneration is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in Germany.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
management team in years:
The average tenure for the Norske Skog management team is over 5 years, this suggests they are a seasoned and experienced team.
Lars Peder Sperre
Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategy
CEO & President
Chief Financial Officer
Chief Operating Officer
Investor Relations Manager
Vice President of Corporate Communication
Senior Vice President of Strategic Projects
Senior Vice President of Commercial
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure of the
board of directors in years:
The average tenure for the Norske Skog board of directors is less than 3 years, this suggests a new board.
Board of Directors
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
More shares have been bought than sold by Norske Skog individual insiders in the past 3 months, but not in substantial volumes.
Norske Skog ASA produces and sells newsprint and magazine publication paper primarily in Europe and Australasia. It operates through two segments, Publication Paper Europe, and Publication Paper Australasia. The company offers improved newsprint, super calandered, light weight coated, and book and directory paper products. Its products are used in newspapers and magazines, catalogues, inserts/flyers, supplements, freesheets, directories, direct mail, brochures, and books. The company sells its products under the Nornews, Norbright, NorX, Norstar, Norcote, NorSC, Norbook, Vantage, and Tasman Directory brand names. It also exports its products to North America, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. The company was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Oslo, Norway. Norske Skog ASA is a subsidiary of NS Norway Holding AS.
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