Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for DB:VTLN using Excess Returns Model Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Vontobel Holding is arrived at using the Excess Return Model. This approach is used for finance firms where free cash flow is difficult to estimate.
In the Excess Return Model the value of a firm can be written as the sum of capital invested currently in the firm and the present value of excess returns that the firm expects to make in the future.
The model is sensitive to the Return on Equity of the company versus the Cost of Equity, how these are calculated is detailed below the main calculation.
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Vontobel Holding's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Vontobel Holding's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a substantial discount (< 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Vontobel Holding's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Vontobel Holding's earnings are expected to grow by 10.2% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Vontobel Holding's revenue is expected to grow by 5.8% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Vontobel Holding's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
1/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
A company's financial position is much like your own financial position,
it includes everything you own
The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up
Vontobel Holding's finances.
The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Vontobel Holding's short term (1 year) commitments are greater than its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
Vontobel Holding's cash and other short term assets cover its long term commitments.
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of
Vontobel Holding's finances. If any of them are yellow this
indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
Low level of unsold assets.
Debt is covered by short term assets, assets are 6.1x debt.
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t
however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest
on its debts this may have impacts in the future.
The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to
see the red area (debt) decreasing.
If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and
whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Dr. Zeno Markus Staub, Ph.D., serves as the Chief Executive Officer and Member of Executive Management at Bank Vontobel AG. Dr. Staub has been the Chief Executive Officer at Vontobel Holding AG since May 4, 2011 and serves as its Member of Executive Board and was previously Member of the Group Executive Management from 2003 to 2011, Head of Asset Management from January 1, 2008 to 2011, Head of Investment Banking August 22, 2006 to December 2007, Chief Financial Officer since 2003, Head of the CFO management support unit, Controlling and IT Project Portfolio from 2001 to 2002 and Chief of Staff since 2001. Previously, he was the Chief Financial Officer at Vontobel Group. Previously, Dr. Staub was the a Managing Partner at almafin AG from 1994 to 2000. He is a Director of the Board of Directors of Vontobel Asset Management, Inc., and was previously the Vice Chairman. Dr. Staub is a Member of the Management Board of Schweizerische Management Gesellschaft and a Member of the Advisory Board of the Society of Investment Professionals. Previously, he was a Member of the Executive Board of BZ Informatik AG in 2000. Dr. Staub is a member of the Swiss Society for Financial Market Research. He has earned a Ph.D. in Economics in 1997 and graduated in 1993 from the University of St. Gallen.
Zeno's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year, both up more than 20%.
Zeno's remuneration is higher than average for companies of similar size in Germany.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
management team in years:
The average tenure for the Vontobel Holding management team is over 5 years, this suggests they are a seasoned and experienced team.
CEO & Member of the Executive Board
CFO & Member of the Executive Board
Head of Investment Banking & Member of the Executive Board
COO & Member of the Executive Board
Head of Asset Management & Member of the Executive Board
Georg Franz Schubiger
Head of Wealth Management & Member of the Executive Board
Head of Investor Relations
Head of Corporate Communications
Regional Head for Private Clients Business
Chief Strategist & Head of The Balanced/Multi Asset Class Boutique
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The tenure for the Vontobel Holding board of directors is about average.
Board of Directors
Chairman of the Board
Vice Chairman of the Board
Clara-Christina F. Streit
Non-Executive Independent Member
Member of Advisory Council
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
No 3 month open market individual insider trading information.
Vontobel Holding AG provides various financial services to private and institutional clients. The company operates through Wealth Management, Asset Management, and Investment Banking segments. The Wealth Management segment offers portfolio management services for private clients; investment advisory services; custodian services; financial advisory services relating to legal, inheritance, and tax matters; collateral and mortgage loans; and pension advisory and wealth consolidation services. The Asset Management segment is involved in the asset management activities. This segment distributes its products through wholesale channels and directly to institutional clients, as well as through its cooperation partners. The Investment Banking segment focuses on the derivatives and structured products business, securities and foreign exchange trading, brokerage, corporate finance, and transaction banking services, as well as provides services for external asset managers. The company was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.
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