Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for BST:287 using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
Note: Free cash flow to equity valuations ignore the company's cash or debt.
BST:287 DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Bergbahnen Engelberg-Trübsee-Titlis's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Bergbahnen Engelberg-Trübsee-Titlis's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Bergbahnen Engelberg-Trübsee-Titlis's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Bergbahnen Engelberg-Trübsee-Titlis's earnings are expected to grow by 3.3% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Unable to determine if Bergbahnen Engelberg-Trübsee-Titlis is high growth as no revenue estimate data is available.
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Bergbahnen Engelberg-Trübsee-Titlis's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
2/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
A company's financial position is much like your own financial position,
it includes everything you own
The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up
Bergbahnen Engelberg-Trübsee-Titlis's finances.
The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Bergbahnen Engelberg-Trübsee-Titlis is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
Bergbahnen Engelberg-Trübsee-Titlis's cash and other short term assets cover its long term commitments.
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of
Bergbahnen Engelberg-Trübsee-Titlis's finances. If any of them are yellow this
indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
High level of physical assets or inventory.
Bergbahnen Engelberg-Trübsee-Titlis has no debt, it does not need to be covered by short term assets.
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t
however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest
on its debts this may have impacts in the future.
The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to
see the red area (debt) decreasing.
If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and
whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Bergbahnen Engelberg-Trübsee-Titlis's financial health by checking for:
Are short term assets greater than short term liabilities? (1 check)
Are short term assets greater than long term liabilities? (1 check)
Has the debt to equity ratio increased in the past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the debt to equity ratio over 40%? (1 check)
Is the debt covered by operating cash flow? (1 check)
Are earnings greater than 5x the interest on debt (if company pays interest
at all)? (1 check)
has a total score of
6/6, see the detailed checks below.
For companies that are loss making and have been so on average in the past we replace the last 2 checks with:
Does cash and short term investments cover stable operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)
Does cash and short term investments cover growing operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)
Bergbahnen Engelberg-Trübsee-Titlis AG operates as a cableway and tourism company in Switzerland. It operates cableways and lift systems, restaurants, and shops, as well as Trübsee Alpine lodge, hotel TERRACE, and TITLIS resort in Engelberg. The company was founded in 1913 and is based in Engelberg, Switzerland.
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