Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for DB:AN9 using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
Note: Free cash flow to equity valuations ignore the company's cash or debt.
DB:AN9 DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Autoneum Holding's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Autoneum Holding's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a substantial discount (< 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Autoneum Holding's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Autoneum Holding's earnings are expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.
Autoneum Holding's revenue is expected to grow by 2.1% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Autoneum Holding's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
0/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
A company's financial position is much like your own financial position,
it includes everything you own
The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up
Autoneum Holding's finances.
The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Autoneum Holding is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
Autoneum Holding's cash and other short term assets cover its long term commitments.
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of
Autoneum Holding's finances. If any of them are yellow this
indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
High level of physical assets or inventory.
Debt is covered by short term assets, assets are 1x debt.
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t
however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest
on its debts this may have impacts in the future.
The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to
see the red area (debt) decreasing.
If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and
whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. Thereof Martin Hirzel has been the Chief Executive Officer and Member of the Group Executive Board at Autoneum Holding AG since April 18, 2011. Mr. Hirzel served as a Business Unit Controller of IBM (Switzerland) Ltd from 1989 to 1994. From 1997 to 1999, he served as Chief Controller International of Division Textile Systems for Rieter Holding Ltd. From 2000 to 2007, he served as a General Manager China of Rieter Holding Ltd. From 2007 to 2011, he served as a Head Business Group SAMEA and member of the Executive Committee of the Division Automotive Systems of Rieter Holding Ltd. He holds degree in business administration (HWV) and General Management Program at Harvard Business School.
Thereof's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year, both up more than 20%.
Thereof's remuneration is higher than average for companies of similar size in Germany.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
management team in years:
The tenure for the Autoneum Holding management team is about average.
CEO & Member of the Group Executive Board
CFO & Member of Group Executive Board
Head of Business Group Asia & Member of the Group Executive Board
Head of Business Group SAMEA and Member of the Group Executive Board
Head of Business Group Europe & Member of the Group Executive Board
Head of Business Group North America & Member of the Group Executive Board
Head of Corporate Communications & Responsibility
Head of Financial Services
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The tenure for the Autoneum Holding board of directors is about average.
Board of Directors
Non-Executive Vice Chairman
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
No 3 month open market individual insider trading information.
Autoneum Holding AG develops and manufactures acoustic and thermal management solutions for the automotive market. It offers multifunctional and lightweight components and systems for noise and heat protection. The company provides engine encapsulations, engine top covers, hoodliners, battery covers, fender insulators, water box shields, and outer dashes and other body-mounted absorbers; and interior floor products comprising inner dashes, non-woven carpets, tufted carpets, spacers and crash pads, and floor insulators and mats. It also offers underbody products, including under floor shields, under engine shields, heatshields, floor pans, battery boxes, and wheelhouse outer liners; body treatment products, such as dampers, stiffeners, and other acoustics components; and measurement systems, as well as performs simulations and tests. The company has operations in Europe, North America, Asia, South America, the Middle East, and Africa. Autoneum Holding AG was founded in 1901 and is headquartered in Winterthur, Switzerland.
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