Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for SHSE:600279 using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
Note: Free cash flow to equity valuations ignore the company's cash or debt.
SHSE:600279 DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Chongqing GangjiuLtd's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Chongqing GangjiuLtd's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Chongqing GangjiuLtd's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
In this section we usually present revenue and earnings growth projections based on the consensus estimates of professional analysts to help investors understand the company’s ability to generate profit. But as Chongqing GangjiuLtd has not provided enough past data and has no analyst forecast, its future earnings cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst predictions.
This is quite a rare situation as 97% of companies covered by Simply Wall St do have past financial data. You can see them here.
Show me the analysis anyway
The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past
performance, by looking at estimated
and how much profit it is expected to make.
Future estimates come from
professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get
Expected Infrastructure industry annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
expected to grow at an
Unable to compare Chongqing GangjiuLtd's earnings growth to the low risk savings rate as no estimate data is available.
Growth vs Market Checks
Unable to compare Chongqing GangjiuLtd's earnings growth to the China market average as no estimate data is available.
Unable to compare Chongqing GangjiuLtd's revenue growth to the China market average as no estimate data is available.
Unable to determine if Chongqing GangjiuLtd is high growth as no earnings estimate data is available.
Unable to determine if Chongqing GangjiuLtd is high growth as no revenue estimate data is available.
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
All data from Chongqing GangjiuLtd Company Filings, last reported 6 months ago, and in
Trailing twelve months (TTM)
annual period rather than quarterly.
SHSE:600279 Past Financials Data
Date (Data in CNY Millions)
*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.
Performance in 3 years
In the same way as past performance we look at the future estimated return
(profit) compared to the available
funds. We do this looking forward 3 years.
Unable to establish if Chongqing GangjiuLtd will efficiently use shareholders’ funds in the future without estimates of Return on Equity.
Examine whether Chongqing GangjiuLtd is trading at Chongqing GangjiuLtd'san attractive price based on how much it is expected to earn in the future, and relative to its industry peers and the wider market.
Chongqing GangjiuLtd's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
1/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
A company's financial position is much like your own financial position,
it includes everything you own
The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up
Chongqing GangjiuLtd's finances.
The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Chongqing GangjiuLtd is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
Chongqing GangjiuLtd's cash and other short term assets cover its long term commitments.
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of
Chongqing GangjiuLtd's finances. If any of them are yellow this
indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
High level of physical assets or inventory.
Debt is covered by short term assets, assets are 1x debt.
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t
however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest
on its debts this may have impacts in the future.
The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to
see the red area (debt) decreasing.
If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and
whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Chongqing Gangjiu Co.,Ltd provides cargo handling services primarily in China. The company offers logistics consulting, logistics planning, ship generation, freight forwarding, port loading and unloading, land and water transfer, inland river passenger and cargo transportation, container transit transportation, warehousing, distribution and other integrated logistics, and shipment services. It also provides passenger and cargo transport, inland freight, goods handling, materials, goods storage, container, and other services. In addition, the company offers commodity storage, ship repair, and charge d'affaires transport and transit services, In addition, the company engages in the sales of automobiles, electrical machinery and equipment, chemical raw materials and products, building materials, rubber products, wood and products, and arts and crafts; operations of department stores; import and export of goods; and manufacture of general machinery and ship parts. Chongqing Gangjiu Co.,Ltd is based in Chongqing, China.
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