Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for SWX:SRAIL using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
Note: Free cash flow to equity valuations ignore the company's cash or debt.
SWX:SRAIL DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
The current share price of
is above its future cash flow value.
Often investors are willing to pay a
for a company that has a high dividend or the potential for future growth.
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Stadler Rail's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Stadler Rail's earnings are expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.
Stadler Rail's revenue is expected to grow by 12.7% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Stadler Rail's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
0/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Dr. Thomas Ahlburg is Group Chief Executive Officer and Executive Vice President Switzerland a.i. at Stadler Rail AG since May 2019. He is also Member of Executive Board at Stadler Polska Sp. z o.o. Dr. Ahlburg has been Group CEO of Stadler Rail AG since January 2018 and serves as its Member of the Group Executive Board. Dr. Ahlburg was Deputy Group Chief Executive Officer at Stadler Rail AG until January 2018 and served as its Deputy President until September 28, 2016.
Insufficient data for Thomas to compare compensation growth.
Insufficient data for Thomas to establish whether their remuneration is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in Switzerland.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure of the
management team in years:
The average tenure for the Stadler Rail management team is less than 2 years, this suggests a new team.
CFO & Member of The Group Executive Board
Executive VP of Service & Member of The Group Executive Board
Executive VP of Central & Eastern Europe and Member of The Group Executive Board
Executive VP of Components & Member of The Group Executive Board
Head of Communications & PR
Executive VP of Spain & Member of The Group Executive Board
Executive VP of Germany & Member of The Executive Board
Executive VP of Sales & Marketing and Member of The Group Executive Board
Board of Directors
President of the Board
Vice President of Board of Directors
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
No 3 month open market individual insider trading information.
These 4 Measures Indicate That Stadler Rail (VTX:SRAIL) Is Using Debt Extensively
SWX:SRAIL Historical Debt, August 16th 2019 How Healthy Is Stadler Rail's Balance Sheet? … While Stadler Rail has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. … So while Stadler Rail does not have a great balance sheet, it's certainly not too bad.
Is Stadler Rail AG's (VTX:SRAIL) Capital Allocation Ability Worth Your Time?
The formula for calculating the return on capital employed is: Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities) Or for Stadler Rail: 0.15 = CHF151m ÷ (CHF2.9b - CHF1.9b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2018.) So, Stadler Rail has an ROCE of 15%. … Do Stadler Rail's Current Liabilities Skew Its ROCE? … The Bottom Line On Stadler Rail's ROCE The ROCE would not look as appealing if the company had fewer current liabilities.
Stadler Rail AG designs, manufactures, and sells trains in Switzerland and internationally. It operates through two segments, Rolling Stock; and Service and Components. The Rolling stock segment manufactures high-speed and intercity trains, suburban and regional transport trains, city transport, locomotives, and tailor made vehicles, as well as passenger trains, light rails, and trams. The service and component segment offers modernization and revision, spare parts, vehicle repairs, upgrading and overhauling, and maintenance services, as well as supplies vehicle components, such as car bodies or bogies. The company was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Bussnang, Switzerland.
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