Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for TSXV:TIL using Excess Returns Model Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Till Capital is arrived at using the Excess Return Model. This approach is used for finance firms where free cash flow is difficult to estimate.
In the Excess Return Model the value of a firm can be written as the sum of capital invested currently in the firm and the present value of excess returns that the firm expects to make in the future.
The model is sensitive to the Return on Equity of the company versus the Cost of Equity, how these are calculated is detailed below the main calculation.
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Till Capital's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Till Capital's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a substantial discount (< 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Till Capital's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
In this section we usually present revenue and earnings growth projections based on the consensus estimates of professional analysts to help investors understand the company’s ability to generate profit. But as Till Capital has not provided enough past data and has no analyst forecast, its future earnings cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst predictions.
This is quite a rare situation as 97% of companies covered by Simply Wall St do have past financial data. You can see them here.
Show me the analysis anyway
The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past
performance, by looking at estimated
and how much profit it is expected to make.
Future estimates come from
professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get
Expected Insurance industry annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
expected to grow at an
Unable to compare Till Capital's earnings growth to the low risk savings rate as no estimate data is available.
Growth vs Market Checks
Unable to compare Till Capital's earnings growth to the Canada market average as no estimate data is available.
Unable to compare Till Capital's revenue growth to the Canada market average as no estimate data is available.
Unable to determine if Till Capital is high growth as no earnings estimate data is available.
Unable to determine if Till Capital is high growth as no revenue estimate data is available.
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Till Capital's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
2/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. Brian Patrick Lupien has been Chief Financial Officer of Till Capital Corporation (Formerly known as Till Capital Ltd) since March 17, 2016. Mr. Lupien has been with Till Capital since 2014 and served as its Treasurer since April 2014. He also serves on the Board of Directors of two of Till's wholly-owned subsidiaries, Omega Insurance Holdings Inc. and Omega General Insurance Company. Mr. Lupien has experience in accounting and reporting responsibilities for a private investment fund and has worked as an audit manager for a variety of clients across multiple industries. He gained his Certified Public Accountant designation in 2000 and is a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants. He is a graduate of the University of California at Davis, Mr. Lupien earned his Bachelor of Science degree in 1995 majoring in Managerial Economics.
Brian's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year, both up more than 20%.
Brian's remuneration is about average for companies of similar size in Canada.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
management team in years:
The average tenure for the Till Capital management team is over 5 years, this suggests they are a seasoned and experienced team.
Chief Executive Officer
CFO, Treasurer & Controller
Chief Investment Officer & Director
Investor Relations Consultant
Chief Executive Officer of Omega Insurance Holdings Inc
COO & CFO of Omega Insurance Holdings Inc
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The tenure for the Till Capital board of directors is about average.
Board of Directors
Non-Executive Chairman of the Board
Chief Investment Officer & Director
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
No 3 month open market individual insider trading information.
Should You Be Concerned About Till Capital Ltd's (CVE:TIL) Investors?
I am going to take a deep dive into Till Capital Ltd’s (CVE:TIL) most recent ownership structure, not a frequent subject of discussion among individual investors. … The effect of an active institutional investor with a similar ownership as a passive pension-fund can be vastly different on a company's corporate governance and accountability to shareholders. … While this may be more interesting for long-term investors, short-term investors can also benefit by paying attention to when these institutions trade in order to take advantage of the heightened volatility.
Till Capital Ltd., through its subsidiaries, engages in the insurance and reinsurance business in Canada, Bermuda, and the United States. The company provides assumption reinsurance to insurance companies that want to exit the Canadian market; and to insurance companies that want to transfer their remaining claim liabilities on particular books of business. It also acts as the primary insurer and direct writer for insurance companies seeking Canadian business, but lacking the appropriate Canadian insurance licenses; and ongoing and one-time consulting services in the areas of taxation, risk management, mergers and acquisitions, expert witness testimony, and claim reviews. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.
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