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Kelt Exploration

TSX:KEL
Snowflake Description

Fair value with questionable track record.

The Snowflake is generated from 30 checks in 5 different areas, read more below.
KEL
TSX
CA$197M
Market Cap
  1. Home
  2. CA
  3. Energy
Company description

Kelt Exploration Ltd., an oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas resources primarily in northwestern Alberta and northeastern British Columbia, Canada. The last earnings update was 19 days ago. More info.


Add to Portfolio Compare Print
  • Kelt Exploration has significant price volatility in the past 3 months.
KEL Share Price and Events
7 Day Returns
2.3%
TSX:KEL
15.2%
CA Oil and Gas
11.4%
CA Market
1 Year Returns
-84%
TSX:KEL
-41.5%
CA Oil and Gas
-22%
CA Market
KEL Shareholder Return
  7 Day 30 Day 90 Day 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Kelt Exploration (KEL) 2.3% -71.8% -81.6% -84% -86.8% -89.1%
CA Oil and Gas 15.2% -37.6% -42.4% -41.5% -49.8% -53.6%
CA Market 11.4% -22.2% -23.5% -22% -19.8% -13.3%
1 Year Return vs Industry and Market
  • KEL underperformed the Oil and Gas industry which returned -41.5% over the past year.
  • KEL underperformed the Market in Canada which returned -22% over the past year.
Price Volatility
KEL
Industry
5yr Volatility vs Market

Value

 Is Kelt Exploration undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?

Value is all about what a company is worth versus what price it is available for. If you went into a grocery store and all the bananas were on sale at half price, they could be considered undervalued.
INTRINSIC VALUE BASED ON FUTURE CASH FLOWS
Here we compare the current share price of Kelt Exploration to its discounted cash flow analysis.value.

The discounted cash flow value is simply looking at what the company is worth today, based on estimates of how much money it is expected to make in the future.
Raw Data

Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Kelt Exploration.

TSX:KEL Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 4 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 10.6%
Perpetual Growth Rate 10-Year CA Government Bond Rate 1.4%

An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for TSX:KEL
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 10-Year CA Govt Bond Rate 1.4%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 5.4%
Oil and Gas Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 0.83
Re-levered Beta = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
= 0.825 (1 + (1- 26.5%) (195.87%))
1.679
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm)
1.68
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 1.44% + (1.679 * 5.44%)
10.58%

Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for TSX:KEL using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Kelt Exploration is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

Note: Free cash flow to equity valuations ignore the company's cash or debt.

TSX:KEL DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (CAD, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 10.58%)
2020 -9.17 Analyst x6 -8.29
2021 -20.86 Analyst x7 -17.06
2022 -26.00 Analyst x1 -19.23
2023 99.00 Analyst x1 66.22
2024 156.57 Est @ 58.15% 94.72
2025 220.98 Est @ 41.14% 120.90
2026 285.57 Est @ 29.23% 141.29
2027 345.23 Est @ 20.89% 154.47
2028 397.21 Est @ 15.06% 160.73
2029 440.79 Est @ 10.97% 161.31
Present value of next 10 years cash flows CA$855.00
TSX:KEL DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= CA$440.79 × (1 + 1.44%) ÷ (10.58% – 1.44%)
CA$4,894.71
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
= CA$4,894.71 ÷ (1 + 10.58%)10
CA$1,791.23
TSX:KEL Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= CA$855.00 + CA$1,791.23
CA$2,646.23
Equity Value per Share
(CAD)
= Total value / Shares Outstanding
= CA$2,646.23 / 187.79
CA$14.09
TSX:KEL Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Value per share (CAD) From above. CA$14.09
Current discount Discount to share price of CA$0.88
= -1 x (CA$0.88 - CA$14.09) / CA$14.09
93.8%

Learn more about our DCF calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model .

Current Discount
Amount off the current price Kelt Exploration is available for.
Intrinsic value
>50%
Share price is CA$0.88 vs Future cash flow value of CA$14.09
Current Discount Checks
For Kelt Exploration to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the current price. Less than 40% is even better.
  • Kelt Exploration's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
  • Kelt Exploration's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.

The amount the stock market is willing to pay for Kelt Exploration's earnings, growth and assets is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Are Kelt Exploration's earnings available for a low price, and how does this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Raw Data
TSX:KEL PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Earnings Per Share * Company Filings (2019-12-31) in CAD CA$0.04
TSX:KEL Share Price ** TSX (2020-03-27) in CAD CA$0.88
Canada Oil and Gas Industry PE Ratio Median Figure of 55 Publicly-Listed Oil and Gas Companies 6.35x
Canada Market PE Ratio Median Figure of 499 Publicly-Listed Companies 10.74x

* Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual GAAP earnings per share excluding extraordinary items.

** Primary Listing of Kelt Exploration.

TSX:KEL PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PE Ratio

= TSX:KEL Share Price ÷ EPS (both in CAD)

= 0.88 ÷ 0.04

24.68x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Kelt Exploration is overvalued based on earnings compared to the CA Oil and Gas industry average.
  • Kelt Exploration is overvalued based on earnings compared to the Canada market.
Price based on expected Growth
Does Kelt Exploration's expected growth come at a high price?
Raw Data
TSX:KEL PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
PE Ratio See PE Ratio Section 24.68x
Net Income Annual Growth Rate See Future Growth Section.
Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 4 Analysts
-46.1%per year
Canada Oil and Gas Industry PEG Ratio Median Figure of 29 Publicly-Listed Oil and Gas Companies -0.04x
Canada Market PEG Ratio Median Figure of 234 Publicly-Listed Companies 0.69x

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

TSX:KEL PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PEG Ratio

= PE Ratio ÷ Net Income Annual Growth Rate

= 24.68x ÷ -46.1%

-0.54x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Kelt Exploration earnings are not expected to grow next year, we can't assess if its growth is good value.
Price based on value of assets
What value do investors place on Kelt Exploration's assets?
Raw Data
TSX:KEL PB (Price to Book) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Book Value per Share Company Filings (2019-12-31) in CAD CA$4.92
TSX:KEL Share Price * TSX (2020-03-27) in CAD CA$0.88
Canada Oil and Gas Industry PB Ratio Median Figure of 198 Publicly-Listed Oil and Gas Companies 0.38x
Canada Market PB Ratio Median Figure of 2,352 Publicly-Listed Companies 1x
TSX:KEL PB (Price to Book) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PB Ratio

= TSX:KEL Share Price ÷ Book Value per Share (both in CAD)

= 0.88 ÷ 4.92

0.18x

* Primary Listing of Kelt Exploration.

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Kelt Exploration is good value based on assets compared to the CA Oil and Gas industry average.
X
Value checks
We assess Kelt Exploration's value by looking at:
  1. Is the discounted cash flow value less than 20%, or 40% of the share price? (2 checks) ( Click here or on bar chart for details of DCF calculation. )
  2. Is the PE ratio less than the market average, and/ or less than the Oil and Gas industry average (and greater than 0)? (2 checks)
  3. Is the PEG ratio within a reasonable range (0 to 1)? (1 check)
  4. Is the PB ratio less than the Oil and Gas industry average (and greater than 0)? (1 check)
  5. Kelt Exploration has a total score of 3/6, see the detailed checks below.

    Note: We use GAAP Earnings per Share in all our calculations including PE and PEG Ratio.

    Full details on the Value part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Future Performance

 How is Kelt Exploration expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?

The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past performance, by looking at estimated growth and how much profit it is expected to make.

Future estimates come from professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get it right!
Annual Growth Rate
-46.1%
Expected annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
Is Kelt Exploration expected to grow at an attractive rate?
  • Kelt Exploration's earnings are expected to decrease over the next 1-3 years, this is below the low risk savings rate of 1.4%.
Growth vs Market Checks
  • Kelt Exploration's earnings are expected to decrease over the next 1-3 years, this is below the Canada market average.
  • Kelt Exploration's revenues are expected to decrease over the next 1-3 years, this is below the Canada market average.
Annual Growth Rates Comparison
Raw Data
TSX:KEL Future Growth Rates Data Sources
Data Point Source Value (per year)
TSX:KEL Future Earnings Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 4 Analysts -46.1%
TSX:KEL Future Revenue Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Revenue of 4 Analysts -32.1%
Canada Oil and Gas Industry Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average -3.9%
Canada Oil and Gas Industry Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 1%
Canada Market Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 7.7%
Canada Market Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 3.9%

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Learn more about our growth rate calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model.

Analysts growth expectations
Raw Data
TSX:KEL Analysts Growth Expectations Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (2 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 4 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
All numbers in CAD Millions and using Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
TSX:KEL Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in CAD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income * Avg. No. Analysts
2023-12-31 38 429 1
2022-12-31 34 304 1
2021-12-31 404 165 -23 3
2020-12-31 323 140 -66 4
2020-03-28
TSX:KEL Past Financials Data
Date (Data in CAD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income *
2019-12-31 375 162 7
2019-09-30 376 191 12
2019-06-30 378 206 19
2019-03-31 373 187 18
2018-12-31 359 186 8
2018-09-30 337 159 0
2018-06-30 298 154 -14
2018-03-31 264 143 -21
2017-12-31 234 115 -23
2017-09-30 211 101 -6
2017-06-30 203 91 -11
2017-03-31 185 71 -26

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Super high growth metrics
High Growth Checks
  • Kelt Exploration's earnings are expected to decrease over the next 1-3 years, this is not considered high growth.
  • Kelt Exploration's revenue is expected to decrease over the next 1-3 years, this is not considered high growth.
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Raw Data
TSX:KEL Past and Future Earnings per Share
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (2 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 4 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below

All data from Kelt Exploration Company Filings, last reported 2 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

TSX:KEL Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in CAD Millions) EPS * EPS High Estimate EPS Low Estimate Avg. No. Analysts
2023-12-31
2022-12-31
2021-12-31 -0.24 -0.13 -0.35 2.00
2020-12-31 -0.26 -0.15 -0.44 3.00
2020-03-28
TSX:KEL Past Financials Data
Date (Data in CAD Millions) EPS *
2019-12-31 0.04
2019-09-30 0.07
2019-06-30 0.10
2019-03-31 0.10
2018-12-31 0.04
2018-09-30 0.00
2018-06-30 -0.08
2018-03-31 -0.12
2017-12-31 -0.13
2017-09-30 -0.03
2017-06-30 -0.06
2017-03-31 -0.15

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance in 3 years
In the same way as past performance we look at the future estimated return (profit) compared to the available funds. We do this looking forward 3 years.
  • Unable to establish if Kelt Exploration will efficiently use shareholders’ funds in the future (Return on Equity greater than 20%) as it is not expected to be profitable.
X
Future performance checks
We assess Kelt Exploration's future performance by looking at:
  1. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the low risk savings rate, plus a premium to keep pace with inflation?
  2. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in earnings of the Canada market? (1 check)
  3. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in revenue of the Canada market? (1 check)
  4. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  6. Is the Return on Equity in 3 years expected to be over 20%? (1 check)
Some of the above checks will fail if the company is expected to be loss making in the relevant year.
Kelt Exploration has a total score of 0/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note 1: We use GAAP Net Income Excluding Exceptional Items for our Earnings in all our calculations.

Full details on the Future part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Past Performance

  How has Kelt Exploration performed over the past 5 years?

The past performance of a company can be measured by how much growth it has experienced and how much profit it makes relative to the funds and assets it has available.
Past earnings growth
Below we compare Kelt Exploration's growth in the last year to its industry (Oil and Gas).
Past Earnings growth analysis
We also check if the company has grown in the past 5 years, and whether it has maintained that growth in the year.
  • Kelt Exploration has delivered over 20% year on year earnings growth in the past 5 years.
  • Kelt Exploration's 1-year earnings growth is negative, it can't be compared to the 5-year average.
  • Kelt Exploration's 1-year earnings growth is negative, it can't be compared to the CA Oil and Gas industry average.
Earnings and Revenue History
Kelt Exploration's revenue and profit over the past 5 years is shown below, any years where they have experienced a loss will show up in red.
Raw Data

All data from Kelt Exploration Company Filings, last reported 2 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

TSX:KEL Past Revenue, Cash Flow and Net Income Data
Date (Data in CAD Millions) Revenue Net Income * G+A Expenses R&D Expenses
2019-12-31 375.06 6.57 15.75
2019-09-30 375.71 12.04 15.87
2019-06-30 378.19 18.58 15.92
2019-03-31 372.93 17.55 15.35
2018-12-31 358.58 8.15 14.33
2018-09-30 337.42 -0.08 14.11
2018-06-30 297.57 -14.36 13.56
2018-03-31 263.72 -20.93 13.54
2017-12-31 234.00 -23.18 13.00
2017-09-30 210.88 -5.93 12.56
2017-06-30 202.51 -10.58 13.13
2017-03-31 184.77 -26.12 12.78
2016-12-31 168.70 -49.77 13.17
2016-09-30 155.94 -154.62 13.32
2016-06-30 153.87 -160.88 13.09
2016-03-31 163.19 -150.43 13.67
2015-12-31 160.29 -141.04 13.57
2015-09-30 170.40 -46.80 13.34
2015-06-30 181.42 -24.05 13.40
2015-03-31 179.05 -10.75 12.88
2014-12-31 186.26 10.63 12.66
2014-09-30 154.43 7.53 11.85
2014-06-30 112.56 3.95 10.67
2014-03-31 78.83 -0.12 9.97
2013-12-31 40.34 -5.12 7.44

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance last year
We want to ensure a company is making the most of what it has available. This is done by comparing the return (profit) to a company's available funds, assets and capital.
  • Kelt Exploration has not efficiently used shareholders’ funds last year (Return on Equity less than 20%).
  • Kelt Exploration used its assets less efficiently than the CA Oil and Gas industry average last year based on Return on Assets.
  • Kelt Exploration has become profitable over the past 3 years. This is considered to be a significant improvement in its use of capital (Return on Capital Employed).
X
Past performance checks
We assess Kelt Exploration's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
  1. Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
  2. Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the Oil and Gas industry? (1 check)
  3. Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
  6. Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
Kelt Exploration has a total score of 2/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.

Full details on the Past part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Health

 How is Kelt Exploration's financial health and their level of debt?

A company's financial position is much like your own financial position, it includes everything you own (assets) and owe (liabilities).

The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up Kelt Exploration's finances.

The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Net Worth
  • Kelt Exploration's short term (1 year) commitments are greater than its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
  • Kelt Exploration's long term commitments exceed its cash and other short term assets.
Balance sheet
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of Kelt Exploration's finances. If any of them are yellow this indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the checks below.
Assets
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
  • High level of physical assets or inventory.
  • Debt is not covered by short term assets, assets are 0.1x debt.
Historical Debt
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t bad, however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest on its debts this may have impacts in the future.

The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to see the red area (debt) decreasing.

If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Raw Data

All data from Kelt Exploration Company Filings, last reported 2 months ago.

TSX:KEL Past Debt and Equity Data
Date (Data in CAD Millions) Total Equity Total Debt Cash & Short Term Investments
2019-12-31 923.06 383.56 8.37
2019-09-30 908.19 365.05 0.32
2019-06-30 909.37 331.51 0.11
2019-03-31 904.84 272.75 3.17
2018-12-31 893.80 247.27 6.46
2018-09-30 889.28 212.40 1.09
2018-06-30 882.92 183.34 0.03
2018-03-31 857.02 198.20 3.48
2017-12-31 845.70 165.98 3.70
2017-09-30 830.34 166.56 1.26
2017-06-30 839.49 137.26 0.60
2017-03-31 842.35 111.07 0.30
2016-12-31 843.30 182.67 0.56
2016-09-30 823.89 192.20 0.35
2016-06-30 835.24 196.38 0.30
2016-03-31 822.23 214.47 0.30
2015-12-31 846.75 177.57 0.87
2015-09-30 939.64 148.11 0.57
2015-06-30 872.65 224.37 1.33
2015-03-31 635.71 105.12 0.69
2014-12-31 619.64 46.93 1.05
2014-09-30 614.38 0.00 14.96
2014-06-30 544.74 0.00 146.67
2014-03-31 539.41 0.00 168.44
2013-12-31 392.87 0.00 32.02
  • Kelt Exploration's level of debt (41.6%) compared to net worth is high (greater than 40%).
  • The level of debt compared to net worth has increased over the past 5 years (7.7% vs 41.6% today).
  • Debt is well covered by operating cash flow (42.4%, greater than 20% of total debt).
  • Interest payments on debt are not well covered by earnings (EBIT is 1.1x annual interest expense, ideally 3x coverage).
X
Financial health checks
We assess Kelt Exploration's financial health by checking for:
  1. Are short term assets greater than short term liabilities? (1 check)
  2. Are short term assets greater than long term liabilities? (1 check)
  3. Has the debt to equity ratio increased in the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the debt to equity ratio over 40%? (1 check)
  5. Is the debt covered by operating cash flow? (1 check)
  6. Are earnings greater than 5x the interest on debt (if company pays interest at all)? (1 check)
  7. Kelt Exploration has a total score of 1/6, see the detailed checks below.
For companies that are loss making and have been so on average in the past we replace the last 2 checks with:
  1. Does cash and short term investments cover stable operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)
  2. Does cash and short term investments cover growing operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)


Full details on the Health part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Dividends

 What is Kelt Exploration's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividends are regular cash payments to you from the company, similar to a bank paying you interest on a savings account.
Annual Dividend Income
Dividend payments
0%
Current annual income from Kelt Exploration dividends. Estimated to be 0% next year.
If you bought CA$2,000 of Kelt Exploration shares you are expected to receive CA$0 in your first year as a dividend.
Dividend Amount
Here we look how much dividend is being paid, if any. Is it above what you can get in a savings account? It is up there with the best dividend paying companies?
  • Unable to evaluate Kelt Exploration's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers as the company has not reported any payouts.
  • Unable to evaluate Kelt Exploration's dividend against the top 25% market benchmark as the company has not reported any payouts.
Annualized Historical and Future Dividends
It is important to see if the dividend for a company is stable, and not wildly increasing/decreasing each year. This graph shows you the historical rate to count toward your assessment of the stock.

We also check to see if the dividend has increased in the past 10 years.
Raw Data
TSX:KEL Annualized Past and Future Dividends
Data Point Source Value
Past Annualized Dividend Yield S&P Global Market Data See Below
Past Dividends per Share Company Filings/ Annualized Dividend Payments See Below
Future Dividends per Share Estimates Average of up to 4 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
Canada Oil and Gas Industry Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 37 Stocks 8%
Canada Market Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 327 Stocks 4.7%
Canada Minimum Threshold Dividend Yield 10th Percentile 1.3%
Canada Bottom 25% Dividend Yield 25th Percentile 2.7%
Canada Top 25% Dividend Yield 75th Percentile 8.5%

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Note all dividend per share amounts are annualized and not quarterly or other period.

TSX:KEL Future Dividends Estimate Data
Date (Data in CA$) Dividend per Share (annual) Avg. No. Analysts
2023-12-31
2022-12-31
2021-12-31
2020-12-31 0.00 1.00
2020-03-28

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Unable to perform a dividend volatility check as Kelt Exploration has not reported any payouts.
  • Unable to verify if Kelt Exploration's dividend has been increasing as the company has not reported any payouts.
Current Payout to shareholders
What portion of Kelt Exploration's earnings are paid to the shareholders as a dividend.
  • Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as Kelt Exploration has not reported any payouts.
Future Payout to shareholders
  • No need to calculate the sustainability of Kelt Exploration's dividends in 3 years as they are not expected to pay a notable one for Canada.
X
Income/ dividend checks
We assess Kelt Exploration's dividend by checking for:
  1. Firstly is the company paying a notable dividend (greater than 1.3%) - if not then the rest of the checks are ignored.
  2. Is current dividend yield above the bottom 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  3. Is current dividend yield above the top 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  4. Have they paid a dividend for 10 years, and during this period has the dividend been volatile (drop of more than 25%)? (1 check)
  5. If they have paid a dividend for 10 years has it increased in this time? (1 check)
  6. How sustainable is the dividend, can Kelt Exploration afford to pay it from its earnings today and in 3 years (Payout ratio less than 90%)? (2 checks)
  7. Kelt Exploration has a total score of 0/6, see the detailed checks below.


Full details on the Dividends part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Management

 What is the CEO of Kelt Exploration's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have been around for and insider trading.
CEO
David Wilson
COMPENSATION CA$302,480
AGE 59
TENURE AS CEO 7.4 years
CEO Bio

Mr. David John Wilson has been the Chief Executive Officer and President of Kelt Exploration Ltd. since October 11, 2012. Mr. Wilson was President and the Chief Executive Officer of Celtic Exploration Ltd., from September 30, 2002 to February 2013. He served as President of Vintage Petroleum Canada, Inc. from May 2001 to May 2002. He served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Genesis Exploration Ltd. and Genesis Exploration Ltd. (Canada) from 1992 to May 2001. Mr. Wilson has been a Director of Celtic Exploration Ltd., since September 2002 and Independent Director of Artek Exploration Ltd. since March 2005. Mr. Wilson has been a Director at Kelt Exploration Ltd. since October 11, 2012. He served as a Director at Genesis Exploration Ltd. (Canada). He holds a diploma in Petroleum Technology from Southern Alberta Institute Of Technology.

CEO Compensation
  • David's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year, both up more than 20%.
  • David's remuneration is higher than average for companies of similar size in Canada.
Management Team Tenure

Average tenure of the Kelt Exploration management team in years:

7.4
Average Tenure
  • The average tenure for the Kelt Exploration management team is over 5 years, this suggests they are a seasoned and experienced team.
Management Team

Bill Guinan

TITLE
Chairman & Corporate Secretary
COMPENSATION
CA$49K
AGE
63
TENURE
7.4 yrs

David Wilson

TITLE
CEO, President & Director
COMPENSATION
CA$302K
AGE
59
TENURE
7.4 yrs

Sadiq Lalani

TITLE
VP & CFO
COMPENSATION
CA$389K
TENURE
7.4 yrs

Doug MacArthur

TITLE
Vice President of Operations
COMPENSATION
CA$366K
TENURE
7.4 yrs

Pat Miles

TITLE
Vice President of Exploration
COMPENSATION
CA$366K
TENURE
7.4 yrs

Carol Van Brunschot

TITLE
Vice President of Marketing
TENURE
1.7 yrs
Board of Directors Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Kelt Exploration board of directors in years:

4.8
Average Tenure
62
Average Age
  • The tenure for the Kelt Exploration board of directors is about average.
Board of Directors

Bill Guinan

TITLE
Chairman & Corporate Secretary
COMPENSATION
CA$49K
AGE
63

David Wilson

TITLE
CEO, President & Director
COMPENSATION
CA$302K
AGE
59
TENURE
7.4 yrs

Bob Dales

TITLE
Lead Independent Director
COMPENSATION
CA$49K
AGE
71

Neil Sinclair

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
CA$49K
AGE
71
TENURE
7.4 yrs

Michael Shea

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
CA$104K
AGE
61
TENURE
1.9 yrs

Geri Greenall

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
CA$49K
AGE
45
TENURE
2.3 yrs
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
  • More shares have been bought than sold by Kelt Exploration individual insiders in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
Announced Type Name Entity Role Start End Shares Max Price (CA$) Value (CA$)
20. Mar 20 Buy William Guinan Individual 20. Mar 20 20. Mar 20 5,000 CA$0.80 CA$4,000
19. Mar 20 Sell David Wilson Individual 19. Mar 20 19. Mar 20 -384,183 CA$0.01 CA$-3,842
17. Mar 20 Buy Alan Franks Individual 13. Mar 20 16. Mar 20 66,100 CA$1.08 CA$70,944
13. Mar 20 Buy Bruce Gigg Individual 12. Mar 20 12. Mar 20 10,000 CA$1.17 CA$11,700
13. Mar 20 Buy David and Penny Wilson Family Foundation, Endowment Arm Company 11. Mar 20 12. Mar 20 200,000 CA$1.25 CA$247,520
13. Mar 20 Buy David Wilson Individual 11. Mar 20 11. Mar 20 1,680,450 CA$1.35 CA$2,185,235
14. Mar 20 Buy David and Penny Wilson Family Foundation, Endowment Arm Company 13. Mar 20 13. Mar 20 218,000 CA$1.18 CA$257,240
11. Mar 20 Buy Geraldine Greenall Individual 11. Mar 20 11. Mar 20 17,000 CA$1.47 CA$24,905
11. Mar 20 Buy Sadiq Lalani Individual 11. Mar 20 11. Mar 20 20,000 CA$1.30 CA$26,000
11. Mar 20 Buy William Guinan Individual 11. Mar 20 11. Mar 20 10,000 CA$1.26 CA$12,300
15. Jan 19 Buy David and Penny Wilson Family Foundation, Endowment Arm Company 14. Jan 20 14. Jan 20 100,000 CA$4.36 CA$436,000
09. Jan 20 Buy David Wilson Individual 07. Jan 20 08. Jan 20 100,000 CA$4.67 CA$465,455
12. Sep 19 Buy David Wilson Individual 09. Sep 19 09. Sep 19 100,000 CA$3.01 CA$300,750
06. Sep 19 Buy David and Penny Wilson Family Foundation, Endowment Arm Company 04. Sep 19 04. Sep 19 100,000 CA$2.99 CA$298,500
30. Aug 19 Buy David Wilson Individual 26. Aug 19 26. Aug 19 45,000 CA$2.49 CA$112,001
26. Aug 19 Buy Bruce Gigg Individual 23. Aug 19 23. Aug 19 10,000 CA$2.65 CA$26,500
23. Aug 19 Buy David Wilson Individual 19. Aug 19 23. Aug 19 131,200 CA$2.89 CA$370,728
19. Aug 19 Buy Bruce Gigg Individual 19. Aug 19 19. Aug 19 30,000 CA$2.93 CA$87,900
19. Aug 19 Buy David Wilson Individual 16. Aug 19 16. Aug 19 158,900 CA$2.79 CA$443,331
16. Aug 19 Buy David Wilson Individual 15. Aug 19 15. Aug 19 50,000 CA$2.70 CA$135,000
16. Aug 19 Buy William Guinan Individual 16. Aug 19 16. Aug 19 5,000 CA$2.80 CA$14,023
15. Aug 19 Buy David and Penny Wilson Family Foundation, Endowment Arm Company 12. Aug 19 15. Aug 19 190,000 CA$3.12 CA$550,987
15. Aug 19 Buy Sadiq Lalani Individual 15. Aug 19 15. Aug 19 18,000 CA$2.74 CA$49,320
15. Aug 19 Buy David Wilson Individual 12. Aug 19 15. Aug 19 280,000 CA$3.15 CA$814,802
13. Aug 19 Buy Sadiq Lalani Individual 13. Aug 19 13. Aug 19 8,000 CA$3.15 CA$25,200
12. Jun 19 Buy Sadiq Lalani Individual 12. Jun 19 12. Jun 19 9,115 CA$3.88 CA$35,366
12. Jun 19 Buy David Wilson Individual 11. Jun 19 11. Jun 19 87,000 CA$4.13 CA$359,188
07. Jun 19 Buy David Wilson Individual 05. Jun 19 05. Jun 19 102,100 CA$4.27 CA$436,192
05. Jun 19 Buy David Wilson Individual 04. Jun 19 04. Jun 19 47,100 CA$4.41 CA$207,711
X
Management checks
We assess Kelt Exploration's management by checking for:
  1. Is the CEO's compensation unreasonable compared to market cap? (1 check)
  2. Has the CEO's compensation increased more than 20% whilst the EPS is down more then 20%? (1 check)
  3. Is the average tenure of the management team less than 2 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the average tenure of the board of directors team less than 3 years? (1 check)
  5. Kelt Exploration has a total score of 0/6, this is not included on the snowflake, see the detailed checks below.


Note: We use the top 6 management executives and board members in our calculations.

Note 2: Insider trading include any internal stakeholders and these transactions .

Full details on the Management part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

News

Simply Wall St News

Why Kelt Exploration Ltd.’s (TSE:KEL) Use Of Investor Capital Doesn’t Look Great

Analysts use this formula to calculate return on capital employed: Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities) Or for Kelt Exploration: 0.021 = CA$32m ÷ (CA$1.6b - CA$103m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2019.) Therefore, Kelt Exploration has an ROCE of 2.1%. … The ROCE equation subtracts current liabilities from capital employed, so a company with a lot of current liabilities appears to have less capital employed, and a higher ROCE than otherwise. … With barely any current liabilities, there is minimal impact on Kelt Exploration's admittedly low ROCE.

Simply Wall St -

A Closer Look At Kelt Exploration Ltd.'s (TSE:KEL) Uninspiring ROE

The formula for ROE is: Return on Equity = Net Profit ÷ Shareholders' Equity Or for Kelt Exploration: 1.9% = CA$18m ÷ CA$905m (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2019.) It's easy to understand the 'net profit' part of that equation, but 'shareholders' equity' requires further explanation. … Kelt Exploration's Debt And Its 1.9% ROE Although Kelt Exploration does use debt, its debt to equity ratio of 0.30 is still low. … Judicious use of debt to improve returns can certainly be a good thing, although it does elevate risk slightly and reduce future optionality.

Simply Wall St -

What Percentage Of Kelt Exploration Ltd. (TSE:KEL) Shares Do Insiders Own?

See our latest analysis for Kelt Exploration TSX:KEL Ownership Summary, June 19th 2019 What Does The Institutional Ownership Tell Us About Kelt Exploration? … We can see that Kelt Exploration does have institutional investors; and they hold 33% of the stock. … General Public Ownership The general public, who are mostly retail investors, collectively hold 54% of Kelt Exploration shares.

Simply Wall St -

Some Kelt Exploration (TSE:KEL) Shareholders Have Copped A Big 59% Share Price Drop

Given that Kelt Exploration only made minimal earnings in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue to gauge its business development. … For shareholders to have confidence a company will grow profits significantly, it must grow revenue. … In the last half decade, Kelt Exploration saw its revenue increase by 23% per year.

Simply Wall St -

Can Kelt Exploration Ltd. (TSE:KEL) Improve Its Returns?

While some investors are already well versed in financial metrics (hat tip), this article is for those who would like to learn about Return On Equity (ROE) and why it is important. … That means that for every CA$1 worth of shareholders' equity, it generated CA$0.0091 in profit. … Return on Equity = Net Profit ÷ Shareholders' Equity

Simply Wall St -

Do Insiders Own Lots Of Shares In Kelt Exploration Ltd. (TSE:KEL)?

As Nassim Nicholas Taleb said, 'Don’t tell me what you think, tell me what you have in your portfolio.'. … With a market capitalization of CA$979m, Kelt Exploration is a small cap stock, so it might not be well known by many institutional investors. … View our latest analysis for Kelt Exploration

Simply Wall St -

Read This Before Selling Kelt Exploration Ltd. (TSE:KEL) Shares

The Last 12 Months Of Insider Transactions At Kelt Exploration. … That means that an insider was happy to buy shares at around the current price … In any event it's generally a positive if insiders are buying shares at around the current price.

Simply Wall St -

Do Institutions Own Kelt Exploration Ltd (TSE:KEL) Shares?

Large companies usually have institutions as shareholders, and we usually see insiders owning shares in smaller companies. … Kelt Exploration is not a large company by global standards. … institutions own shares in the company

Simply Wall St -

Kelt Exploration Ltd (TSE:KEL): Time For A Financial Health Check

While small-cap stocks, such as Kelt Exploration Ltd (TSE:KEL) with its market cap of CA$1.3b, are popular for their explosive growth, investors should also be aware of their balance sheet to judge whether the company can survive a downturn.

Simply Wall St -

Who Are The Major Shareholders Of Kelt Exploration Ltd (TSE:KEL)?

Today, I will be analyzing Kelt Exploration Ltd’s (TSE:KEL) recent ownership structure, an important but not-so-popular subject among individual investors. … The implications of these institutions’ actions can either benefit or hinder individual investors, so it is important to understand the ownership composition of your stock investment. … Therefore, it is beneficial for us to examine KEL's ownership structure in more detail.

Simply Wall St -

Company Info

Description

Kelt Exploration Ltd., an oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas resources primarily in northwestern Alberta and northeastern British Columbia, Canada. As of December 31, 2019, its proved plus probable reserves were 461.0 million barrels of oil equivalent. The company markets and sells its crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids production primarily to third party marketing companies. Kelt Exploration Ltd. was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

Details
Name: Kelt Exploration Ltd.
KEL
Exchange: TSX
Founded: 2012
CA$197,183,549
187,793,857
Website: http://www.keltexploration.com
Address: Kelt Exploration Ltd.
East Tower,
Suite 300,
Calgary,
Alberta, T2P 3H2,
Canada
Listings
Exchange Symbol Ticker Symbol Security Exchange Country Currency Listed on
TSX KEL Common Shares The Toronto Stock Exchange CA CAD 01. Mar 2013
OTCPK KELT.F Common Shares Pink Sheets LLC US USD 01. Mar 2013
DB 2KE Common Shares Deutsche Boerse AG DE EUR 01. Mar 2013
Number of employees
Current staff
Staff numbers
96
Kelt Exploration employees.
Industry
Oil and Gas Exploration and Production
Energy
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
Area Date (UTC time)
Company Analysis updated: 2020/03/28 02:48
End of day share price update: 2020/03/27 00:00
Last estimates confirmation: 2020/03/25
Last earnings filing: 2020/03/09
Last earnings reported: 2019/12/31
Last annual earnings reported: 2019/12/31


All dates and times in UTC. All financial data provided by Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.