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Transurban Group

ASX:TCL
Snowflake Description

Moderate growth potential and overvalued.

The Snowflake is generated from 30 checks in 5 different areas, read more below.
TCL
ASX
A$30B
Market Cap
  1. Home
  2. AU
  3. Transportation
Company description

Transurban Group develops, operates, manages, maintains, and finances urban toll road networks. The last earnings update was 54 days ago. More info.


Add to Portfolio Compare Print
  • Transurban Group has significant price volatility in the past 3 months.
TCL Share Price and Events
7 Day Returns
-6.3%
ASX:TCL
-6.3%
AU Infrastructure
5%
AU Market
1 Year Returns
-14.8%
ASX:TCL
-17.9%
AU Infrastructure
-19.2%
AU Market
TCL Shareholder Return
  7 Day 30 Day 90 Day 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Transurban Group (TCL) -6.3% -27.5% -25.7% -14.8% -6.3% 13.5%
AU Infrastructure -6.3% -29.1% -28.6% -17.9% -7.4% 11.2%
AU Market 5% -20.3% -25.8% -19.2% -16.8% -17.5%
1 Year Return vs Industry and Market
  • TCL outperformed the Infrastructure industry which returned -17.9% over the past year.
  • TCL outperformed the Market in Australia which returned -19.2% over the past year.
Price Volatility
TCL
Industry
5yr Volatility vs Market

Value

 Is Transurban Group undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?

Value is all about what a company is worth versus what price it is available for. If you went into a grocery store and all the bananas were on sale at half price, they could be considered undervalued.
INTRINSIC VALUE BASED ON FUTURE CASH FLOWS
Here we compare the current share price of Transurban Group to its discounted cash flow analysis.value.

The discounted cash flow value is simply looking at what the company is worth today, based on estimates of how much money it is expected to make in the future.
Raw Data

Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Transurban Group.

ASX:TCL Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 8 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 6.4%
Perpetual Growth Rate 10-Year AU Government Bond Rate 1.1%

An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for ASX:TCL
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 10-Year AU Govt Bond Rate 1.1%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 5.4%
Infrastructure Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 0.67
Re-levered Beta = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
= 0.669 (1 + (1- 30%) (65.7%))
0.985
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm)
0.98
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 1.08% + (0.985 * 5.44%)
6.44%

Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for ASX:TCL using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Transurban Group is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

Note: Free cash flow to equity valuations ignore the company's cash or debt.

ASX:TCL DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (AUD, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 6.44%)
2020 1,244.17 Analyst x6 1,168.93
2021 1,306.71 Analyst x7 1,153.46
2022 1,730.71 Analyst x7 1,435.35
2023 2,279.00 Analyst x3 1,775.77
2024 2,527.33 Analyst x3 1,850.19
2025 2,703.35 Est @ 6.96% 1,859.37
2026 2,843.91 Est @ 5.2% 1,837.76
2027 2,956.62 Est @ 3.96% 1,795.07
2028 3,048.23 Est @ 3.1% 1,738.77
2029 3,124.22 Est @ 2.49% 1,674.35
Present value of next 10 years cash flows A$16,289.00
ASX:TCL DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= A$3,124.22 × (1 + 1.08%) ÷ (6.44% – 1.08%)
A$58,958.85
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
= A$58,958.85 ÷ (1 + 6.44%)10
A$31,597.66
ASX:TCL Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= A$16,289.00 + A$31,597.66
A$47,886.66
Equity Value per Share
(AUD)
= Total value / Shares Outstanding
= A$47,886.66 / 2,735.10
A$17.51
ASX:TCL Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Value per share (AUD) From above. A$17.51
Current discount Discount to share price of A$11.10
= -1 x (A$11.10 - A$17.51) / A$17.51
36.6%

Learn more about our DCF calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model .

Current Discount
Amount off the current price Transurban Group is available for.
Intrinsic value
37%
Share price is A$11.1 vs Future cash flow value of A$17.51
Current Discount Checks
For Transurban Group to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the current price. Less than 40% is even better.
  • Transurban Group's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
  • Transurban Group's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a substantial discount (< 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.

The amount the stock market is willing to pay for Transurban Group's earnings, growth and assets is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Are Transurban Group's earnings available for a low price, and how does this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Raw Data
ASX:TCL PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Earnings Per Share * Company Filings (2019-12-31) in AUD A$0.09
ASX:TCL Share Price ** ASX (2020-04-03) in AUD A$11.1
Oceania Infrastructure Industry PE Ratio Median Figure of 8 Publicly-Listed Infrastructure Companies 31.65x
Australia Market PE Ratio Median Figure of 515 Publicly-Listed Companies 12.99x

* Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual GAAP earnings per share excluding extraordinary items.

** Primary Listing of Transurban Group.

ASX:TCL PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PE Ratio

= ASX:TCL Share Price ÷ EPS (both in AUD)

= 11.1 ÷ 0.09

129.5x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Transurban Group is overvalued based on earnings compared to the Oceania Infrastructure industry average.
  • Transurban Group is overvalued based on earnings compared to the Australia market.
Price based on expected Growth
Does Transurban Group's expected growth come at a high price?
Raw Data
ASX:TCL PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
PE Ratio See PE Ratio Section 129.5x
Net Income Annual Growth Rate See Future Growth Section.
Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 8 Analysts
49.5%per year
Oceania Infrastructure Industry PEG Ratio Median Figure of 6 Publicly-Listed Infrastructure Companies 3.07x
Australia Market PEG Ratio Median Figure of 336 Publicly-Listed Companies 1x

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

ASX:TCL PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PEG Ratio

= PE Ratio ÷ Net Income Annual Growth Rate

= 129.5x ÷ 49.5%

2.61x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Transurban Group is poor value based on expected growth next year.
Price based on value of assets
What value do investors place on Transurban Group's assets?
Raw Data
ASX:TCL PB (Price to Book) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Book Value per Share Company Filings (2019-12-31) in AUD A$3.15
ASX:TCL Share Price * ASX (2020-04-03) in AUD A$11.1
Australia Infrastructure Industry PB Ratio Median Figure of 5 Publicly-Listed Infrastructure Companies 1.17x
Australia Market PB Ratio Median Figure of 1,614 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.24x
ASX:TCL PB (Price to Book) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PB Ratio

= ASX:TCL Share Price ÷ Book Value per Share (both in AUD)

= 11.1 ÷ 3.15

3.52x

* Primary Listing of Transurban Group.

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Transurban Group is overvalued based on assets compared to the AU Infrastructure industry average.
X
Value checks
We assess Transurban Group's value by looking at:
  1. Is the discounted cash flow value less than 20%, or 40% of the share price? (2 checks) ( Click here or on bar chart for details of DCF calculation. )
  2. Is the PE ratio less than the market average, and/ or less than the Infrastructure industry average (and greater than 0)? (2 checks)
  3. Is the PEG ratio within a reasonable range (0 to 1)? (1 check)
  4. Is the PB ratio less than the Infrastructure industry average (and greater than 0)? (1 check)
  5. Transurban Group has a total score of 1/6, see the detailed checks below.

    Note: We use GAAP Earnings per Share in all our calculations including PE and PEG Ratio.

    Full details on the Value part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Future Performance

 How is Transurban Group expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 8 analysts?

The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past performance, by looking at estimated growth and how much profit it is expected to make.

Future estimates come from professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get it right!
Annual Growth Rate
49.5%
Expected annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
Is Transurban Group expected to grow at an attractive rate?
  • Transurban Group's earnings growth is expected to exceed the low risk savings rate of 1.1%.
Growth vs Market Checks
  • Transurban Group's earnings growth is expected to exceed the Australia market average.
  • Transurban Group's revenue growth is positive but not above the Australia market average.
Annual Growth Rates Comparison
Raw Data
ASX:TCL Future Growth Rates Data Sources
Data Point Source Value (per year)
ASX:TCL Future Earnings Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 8 Analysts 49.5%
ASX:TCL Future Revenue Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Revenue of 8 Analysts 2.7%
Oceania Infrastructure Industry Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 37.2%
Oceania Infrastructure Industry Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 4%
Australia Market Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 10.2%
Australia Market Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 4.1%

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Learn more about our growth rate calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model.

Analysts growth expectations
Raw Data
ASX:TCL Analysts Growth Expectations Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (3 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 8 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
All numbers in AUD Millions and using Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
ASX:TCL Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in AUD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income * Avg. No. Analysts
2024-06-30 4,677 2,785 2,121 1
2023-06-30 4,304 2,515 1,833 1
2022-06-30 4,003 1,719 515 8
2021-06-30 3,809 1,314 168 8
2020-06-30 3,888 1,098 32 8
2020-04-04
ASX:TCL Past Financials Data
Date (Data in AUD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income *
2019-12-31 4,173 1,323 231
2019-09-30 4,170 1,260 201
2019-06-30 4,166 1,197 171
2019-03-31 3,977 1,158 224
2018-12-31 3,788 1,119 276
2018-09-30 3,543 1,086 381
2018-06-30 3,298 1,053 485
2018-03-31 3,160 1,042 476
2017-12-31 3,022 1,031 467
2017-09-30 2,877 934 353
2017-06-30 2,732 837 239
2017-03-31 2,610 805 184

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Super high growth metrics
High Growth Checks
  • Transurban Group's earnings are expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.
  • Transurban Group's revenue is expected to grow by 2.7% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Raw Data
ASX:TCL Past and Future Earnings per Share
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (3 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 8 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below

All data from Transurban Group Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

ASX:TCL Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in AUD Millions) EPS * EPS High Estimate EPS Low Estimate Avg. No. Analysts
2024-06-30 0.77 0.77 0.77 1.00
2023-06-30 0.67 0.67 0.67 1.00
2022-06-30 0.18 0.28 0.09 6.00
2021-06-30 0.05 0.13 -0.02 7.00
2020-06-30 0.02 0.08 -0.08 8.00
2020-04-04
ASX:TCL Past Financials Data
Date (Data in AUD Millions) EPS *
2019-12-31 0.09
2019-09-30 0.08
2019-06-30 0.07
2019-03-31 0.09
2018-12-31 0.12
2018-09-30 0.17
2018-06-30 0.23
2018-03-31 0.23
2017-12-31 0.23
2017-09-30 0.17
2017-06-30 0.12
2017-03-31 0.09

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance in 3 years
In the same way as past performance we look at the future estimated return (profit) compared to the available funds. We do this looking forward 3 years.
  • Transurban Group is not expected to efficiently use shareholders’ funds in the future (Return on Equity less than 20%).
X
Future performance checks
We assess Transurban Group's future performance by looking at:
  1. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the low risk savings rate, plus a premium to keep pace with inflation?
  2. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in earnings of the Oceania market? (1 check)
  3. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in revenue of the Oceania market? (1 check)
  4. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  6. Is the Return on Equity in 3 years expected to be over 20%? (1 check)
Some of the above checks will fail if the company is expected to be loss making in the relevant year.
Transurban Group has a total score of 3/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note 1: We use GAAP Net Income Excluding Exceptional Items for our Earnings in all our calculations.

Full details on the Future part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Past Performance

  How has Transurban Group performed over the past 5 years?

The past performance of a company can be measured by how much growth it has experienced and how much profit it makes relative to the funds and assets it has available.
Past earnings growth
Below we compare Transurban Group's growth in the last year to its industry (Infrastructure).
Past Earnings growth analysis
We also check if the company has grown in the past 5 years, and whether it has maintained that growth in the year.
  • Transurban Group has delivered over 20% year on year earnings growth in the past 5 years.
  • Transurban Group's 1-year earnings growth is negative, it can't be compared to the 5-year average.
  • Transurban Group's 1-year earnings growth is negative, it can't be compared to the Oceania Infrastructure industry average.
Earnings and Revenue History
Transurban Group's revenue and profit over the past 5 years is shown below, any years where they have experienced a loss will show up in red.
Raw Data

All data from Transurban Group Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

ASX:TCL Past Revenue, Cash Flow and Net Income Data
Date (Data in AUD Millions) Revenue Net Income * G+A Expenses R&D Expenses
2019-12-31 4,173.00 231.00 110.00
2019-09-30 4,169.50 201.00 108.50
2019-06-30 4,166.00 171.00 107.00
2019-03-31 3,977.00 223.50 110.00
2018-12-31 3,788.00 276.00 113.00
2018-09-30 3,543.00 380.50 113.00
2018-06-30 3,298.00 485.00 113.00
2018-03-31 3,160.00 476.00 114.50
2017-12-31 3,022.00 467.00 116.00
2017-09-30 2,877.00 353.00 111.00
2017-06-30 2,732.00 239.00 106.00
2017-03-31 2,610.00 183.50 98.50
2016-12-31 2,488.00 128.00 91.00
2016-09-30 2,349.00 113.50 91.00
2016-06-30 2,210.00 99.00 91.00
2016-03-31 2,081.00 91.50 91.00
2015-12-31 1,952.00 84.00 91.00
2015-09-30 1,906.00 -49.00 91.00
2015-06-30 1,860.00 -182.00 91.00
2014-12-31 1,542.00 8.00 89.00
2014-09-30 1,346.00 141.00 74.50
2014-06-30 1,150.00 274.00 60.00
2013-12-31 1,181.80 172.06 36.19
2013-09-30 1,188.40 172.03 38.60
2013-06-30 1,195.00 172.00 41.00

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance last year
We want to ensure a company is making the most of what it has available. This is done by comparing the return (profit) to a company's available funds, assets and capital.
  • Transurban Group has not efficiently used shareholders’ funds last year (Return on Equity less than 20%).
  • Transurban Group used its assets less efficiently than the Oceania Infrastructure industry average last year based on Return on Assets.
  • Transurban Group's use of capital deteriorated last year versus 3 years ago (Return on Capital Employed).
X
Past performance checks
We assess Transurban Group's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
  1. Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
  2. Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the Infrastructure industry? (1 check)
  3. Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
  6. Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
Transurban Group has a total score of 1/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.

Full details on the Past part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Health

 How is Transurban Group's financial health and their level of debt?

A company's financial position is much like your own financial position, it includes everything you own (assets) and owe (liabilities).

The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up Transurban Group's finances.

The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Net Worth
  • Transurban Group's short term (1 year) commitments are greater than its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
  • Transurban Group's long term commitments exceed its cash and other short term assets.
Balance sheet
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of Transurban Group's finances. If any of them are yellow this indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the checks below.
Assets
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
  • Low level of unsold assets.
  • Debt is not covered by short term assets, assets are 0.1x debt.
Historical Debt
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t bad, however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest on its debts this may have impacts in the future.

The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to see the red area (debt) decreasing.

If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Raw Data

All data from Transurban Group Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago.

ASX:TCL Past Debt and Equity Data
Date (Data in AUD Millions) Total Equity Total Debt Cash & Short Term Investments
2019-12-31 9,563.00 19,945.00 2,039.00
2019-09-30 9,563.00 19,945.00 2,039.00
2019-06-30 9,902.00 18,969.00 1,639.00
2019-03-31 9,902.00 18,969.00 1,639.00
2018-12-31 11,023.00 17,670.00 1,779.00
2018-09-30 11,023.00 17,670.00 1,779.00
2018-06-30 6,766.00 15,846.00 1,376.00
2018-03-31 6,766.00 15,846.00 1,376.00
2017-12-31 6,859.00 14,845.00 2,487.00
2017-09-30 6,859.00 14,845.00 2,487.00
2017-06-30 5,799.00 14,114.00 1,145.00
2017-03-31 5,799.00 14,114.00 1,145.00
2016-12-31 6,220.00 14,193.00 1,445.00
2016-09-30 6,220.00 14,193.00 1,445.00
2016-06-30 6,458.00 13,281.00 834.00
2016-03-31 6,458.00 13,281.00 834.00
2015-12-31 6,630.00 12,508.00 1,892.00
2015-09-30 6,630.00 12,508.00 1,892.00
2015-06-30 5,996.00 12,428.00 1,249.00
2014-12-31 6,558.00 11,462.00 710.00
2014-09-30 6,558.00 11,462.00 710.00
2014-06-30 5,962.00 7,287.00 2,879.00
2013-12-31 3,240.57 6,146.17 457.68
2013-09-30 3,240.57 6,146.17 457.68
2013-06-30 3,366.00 5,360.00 259.00
  • Transurban Group's level of debt (208.6%) compared to net worth is high (greater than 40%).
  • The level of debt compared to net worth has increased over the past 5 years (174.9% vs 208.6% today).
  • Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (6.6%, less than 20% of total debt).
  • Interest payments on debt are not well covered by earnings (EBIT is 1.3x annual interest expense, ideally 3x coverage).
X
Financial health checks
We assess Transurban Group's financial health by checking for:
  1. Are short term assets greater than short term liabilities? (1 check)
  2. Are short term assets greater than long term liabilities? (1 check)
  3. Has the debt to equity ratio increased in the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the debt to equity ratio over 40%? (1 check)
  5. Is the debt covered by operating cash flow? (1 check)
  6. Are earnings greater than 5x the interest on debt (if company pays interest at all)? (1 check)
  7. Transurban Group has a total score of 0/6, see the detailed checks below.
For companies that are loss making and have been so on average in the past we replace the last 2 checks with:
  1. Does cash and short term investments cover stable operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)
  2. Does cash and short term investments cover growing operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)


Full details on the Health part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Dividends

 What is Transurban Group's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividends are regular cash payments to you from the company, similar to a bank paying you interest on a savings account.
Annual Dividend Income
Dividend payments
0%
Current annual income from Transurban Group dividends. Estimated to be 5.04% next year.
If you bought A$2,000 of Transurban Group shares you are expected to receive A$0 in your first year as a dividend.
Dividend Amount
Here we look how much dividend is being paid, if any. Is it above what you can get in a savings account? It is up there with the best dividend paying companies?
  • Unable to evaluate Transurban Group's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers as the company has not reported any payouts.
  • Unable to evaluate Transurban Group's dividend against the top 25% market benchmark as the company has not reported any payouts.
Annualized Historical and Future Dividends
It is important to see if the dividend for a company is stable, and not wildly increasing/decreasing each year. This graph shows you the historical rate to count toward your assessment of the stock.

We also check to see if the dividend has increased in the past 10 years.
Raw Data
ASX:TCL Annualized Past and Future Dividends
Data Point Source Value
Past Annualized Dividend Yield S&P Global Market Data See Below
Past Dividends per Share Company Filings/ Annualized Dividend Payments See Below
Future Dividends per Share Estimates Average of up to 8 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
Oceania Infrastructure Industry Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 5 Stocks 2.8%
Australia Market Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 367 Stocks 5.5%
Australia Minimum Threshold Dividend Yield 10th Percentile 1.7%
Australia Bottom 25% Dividend Yield 25th Percentile 3.2%
Australia Top 25% Dividend Yield 75th Percentile 8.1%

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Note all dividend per share amounts are annualized and not quarterly or other period.

ASX:TCL Future Dividends Estimate Data
Date (Data in A$) Dividend per Share (annual) Avg. No. Analysts
2024-06-30 0.76 3.00
2023-06-30 0.70 3.00
2022-06-30 0.63 12.00
2021-06-30 0.50 14.00
2020-06-30 0.49 14.00
2020-04-04
ASX:TCL Past Annualized Dividends Data
Date (Data in A$) Dividend per share (annual) Avg. Yield (%)
2020-03-31 0.000 0.000
2019-12-03 0.620 4.246
2019-05-21 0.600 4.045
2018-12-04 0.580 4.634
2018-05-21 0.560 4.833
2017-12-04 0.560 4.759
2017-05-23 0.530 4.384
2016-12-05 0.500 4.518
2016-05-24 0.460 4.092
2015-11-23 0.450 4.109
2015-05-15 0.410 4.126
2014-12-04 0.390 4.206
2014-06-24 0.360 4.551
2014-02-12 0.350 4.821
2013-12-23 0.340 4.991
2013-05-21 0.310 4.498
2012-12-05 0.310 4.897
2012-06-18 0.300 5.015
2011-12-07 0.290 5.127
2011-05-25 0.280 5.292
2011-02-10 0.260 4.891
2010-08-12 0.240 4.688
2010-05-27 0.240 5.439
2010-02-16 0.240 4.772
2009-08-26 0.220 4.540

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Unable to perform a dividend volatility check as Transurban Group has not reported any payouts.
  • Unable to verify if Transurban Group's dividend has been increasing as the company has not reported any payouts.
Current Payout to shareholders
What portion of Transurban Group's earnings are paid to the shareholders as a dividend.
  • Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as Transurban Group has not reported any payouts.
Future Payout to shareholders
  • Dividends after 3 years are not well covered by earnings (0.6x coverage).
X
Income/ dividend checks
We assess Transurban Group's dividend by checking for:
  1. Firstly is the company paying a notable dividend (greater than 1.7%) - if not then the rest of the checks are ignored.
  2. Is current dividend yield above the bottom 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  3. Is current dividend yield above the top 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  4. Have they paid a dividend for 10 years, and during this period has the dividend been volatile (drop of more than 25%)? (1 check)
  5. If they have paid a dividend for 10 years has it increased in this time? (1 check)
  6. How sustainable is the dividend, can Transurban Group afford to pay it from its earnings today and in 3 years (Payout ratio less than 90%)? (2 checks)
  7. Transurban Group has a total score of 0/6, see the detailed checks below.


Full details on the Dividends part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Management

 What is the CEO of Transurban Group's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have been around for and insider trading.
CEO
Scott Charlton
COMPENSATION A$7,168,727
AGE 54
TENURE AS CEO 7.8 years
CEO Bio

Mr. Scott Charlton, BSci, BEng (Elec), MBA, Member of FEI, FTA, has been the Chief Executive Officer at Transurban Ltd., and Transurban Group since July 16, 2012. Mr. Charlton has been the Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of Transurban International Limited., since July 16, 2012. He has been Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director of Transurban Infrastructure Management Limited since July 16, 2012. He has been an Executive Director of Transurban Group since July 16, 2012. He served as an Associate Director of Leighton Holdings Ltd. since July 2007. He has been Chief Executive Officer of Transurban Holdings Limited at since July 16, 2012. He has been an Executive Director of Transurban Holdings Limited at Transurban Finance Co. Pty. Ltd., since July 16, 2012. He serves as an Executive Director of Transurban Group. Mr. Charlton has more than 21 years’ experience in property, construction, infrastructure and finance. He served as the Group Chief Operating Officer at Lend Lease Group from November 08, 2011 to July 2, 2012. He served as the Group Director of Operations at Lend Lease Group from March 19, 2010 to November 08, 2011 and was responsible for managing Lend Lease's key corporate functions including Risk and Safety, Human Resources, Legal, Finance, Corporate Affairs and Information and Communications Technology. He served as the Chief Financial Officer of CIMIC Group Limited (Leighton Holdings Ltd.) from July 1, 2007 to October 2009 and served as the Chief Financial Officer of its subsidiary Leighton International Limited. He is currently Deputy Chair of Infrastructure Partnerships Australia and is a member of the Monash Industry Council of Advisors, the Business Council of Australia, and of Roads Australia. He served as the Chief Financial Officer of Leighton Offshore Sdn Bhd (formerly Leighton International Limited) from July 1, 2007 to October 2009. Mr. Charlton served as General Manager of Finance for Leighton Holdings Ltd. He joined Leighton Holdings in 2003 as an Executive General Manager of Finance, responsible for treasury operations, group taxation, project finance, investments and acquisitions. He served as Managing Director and Head of Transport and Infrastructure Asia-Pacific of Deutsche Bank from 1995 to 2003. He served as Managing Director and Head of Project Finance of Deutsche Bank for Australia and New Zealand in 1998. He managed structured infrastructure transactions for the Allco Finance Group with experience in the financial sector since 1980s. He has been a Director of Transurban International Limited., since July 16, 2012. He has been a Director of Transurban Queensland Finance Pty Limited since April 14, 2014. He is a Member of FEI and FTA. Mr. Charlton is a Graduate in Electrical Engineering from Texas A&M University and Business Administration from Southern Methodist University, USA.

CEO Compensation
  • Scott's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year, both up more than 20%.
  • Scott's remuneration is about average for companies of similar size in Australia.
Management Team Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Transurban Group management team in years:

5.5
Average Tenure
54
Average Age
  • The average tenure for the Transurban Group management team is over 5 years, this suggests they are a seasoned and experienced team.
Management Team

Scott Charlton

TITLE
CEO & Executive Director
COMPENSATION
A$7M
AGE
54
TENURE
7.8 yrs

Adam Watson

TITLE
Chief Financial Officer
COMPENSATION
A$2M
AGE
45
TENURE
5.3 yrs

Jennifer Aument

TITLE
President of North America
COMPENSATION
A$2M
TENURE
2.2 yrs

Andrew Head

TITLE
Chief Executive Officer – WestConnex
COMPENSATION
A$947K

Tony Adams

TITLE
Group Executive of Project Delivery
COMPENSATION
A$2M
TENURE
5.8 yrs

Michele Huey

TITLE
Group Executive of New South Wales
COMPENSATION
A$1M
TENURE
5.3 yrs

Tess Palmer

TITLE
Head of Investor Relations

Julie Galligan

TITLE
General Counsel & Joint Company Secretary
TENURE
8.2 yrs

Sarah Chapman

TITLE
Manager of Media & Communications

Suzette Corr

TITLE
Group Executive of People & Culture
AGE
58
Board of Directors Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Transurban Group board of directors in years:

7.8
Average Tenure
60
Average Age
  • The tenure for the Transurban Group board of directors is about average.
Board of Directors

Lindsay Maxsted

TITLE
Independent Chairman of the Board
COMPENSATION
A$600K
AGE
65
TENURE
9.7 yrs

Scott Charlton

TITLE
CEO & Executive Director
COMPENSATION
A$7M
AGE
54
TENURE
7.8 yrs

Sam Mostyn

TITLE
Independent Non-Executive Director
COMPENSATION
A$250K
AGE
54
TENURE
9.3 yrs

Christine O’Reilly

TITLE
Independent Non-Executive Director
COMPENSATION
A$255K
AGE
58
TENURE
8 yrs

Neil Chatfield

TITLE
Independent Non-Executive Director
COMPENSATION
A$250K
AGE
65
TENURE
11.2 yrs

Peter Scott

TITLE
Independent Non-Executive Director
COMPENSATION
A$230K
AGE
65
TENURE
4.1 yrs

Elizabeth Wilson

TITLE
Independent Non-executive Director
COMPENSATION
A$225K
AGE
60
TENURE
3.3 yrs

Mark Birrell

TITLE
Independent Non-executive Director
COMPENSATION
A$207K
AGE
61
TENURE
1.9 yrs

Terry Bowen

TITLE
Non-Executive Director
AGE
52
TENURE
0.2 yrs
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
  • Transurban Group individual insiders have sold more shares than they have bought in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
Announced Type Name Entity Role Start End Shares Max Price (A$) Value (A$)
03. Apr 20 Buy Terence Bowen Individual 02. Apr 20 02. Apr 20 15,000 A$11.84 A$177,600
03. Apr 20 Sell Scott Charlton Individual 02. Apr 20 02. Apr 20 -200,000 A$11.70 A$-2,340,000
26. Mar 20 Sell BlackRock International Limited Company 17. Jan 18 25. Mar 20 -53,917 A$15.28 A$0
26. Mar 20 Buy BlackRock International Limited Company 11. May 18 17. Mar 20 211,081 A$16.26 A$0
26. Mar 20 Sell BlackRock Advisors (UK) Limited Company 12. Jan 18 25. Mar 20 -6,646,645 A$16.37 A$0
26. Mar 20 Buy BlackRock Advisors (UK) Limited Company 08. Jan 18 25. Mar 20 9,709,092 A$16.37 A$0
26. Mar 20 Sell BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited Company 09. Jan 18 25. Mar 20 -5,385,464 A$16.36 A$0
26. Mar 20 Buy BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited Company 24. Jan 18 24. Mar 20 7,259,315 A$16.50 A$0
26. Mar 20 Sell BlackRock (Netherlands) B.V. Company 28. May 19 18. Mar 20 -88,215 A$15.68 A$0
26. Mar 20 Buy BlackRock (Netherlands) B.V. Company 29. Mar 18 28. Feb 20 115,036 A$14.32 A$0
26. Mar 20 Sell BlackRock, Inc. Company 09. Jan 18 25. Mar 20 -26,950,332 A$16.38 A$0
26. Mar 20 Buy BlackRock, Inc. Company 08. Jan 18 25. Mar 20 37,316,870 A$16.37 A$603,615
13. Mar 20 Sell Scott Charlton Individual 10. Mar 20 10. Mar 20 -200,000 A$14.61 A$-2,922,000
22. Nov 19 Sell Neil Chatfield Individual 15. Nov 19 15. Nov 19 -10,000 A$15.15 A$-151,500
X
Management checks
We assess Transurban Group's management by checking for:
  1. Is the CEO's compensation unreasonable compared to market cap? (1 check)
  2. Has the CEO's compensation increased more than 20% whilst the EPS is down more then 20%? (1 check)
  3. Is the average tenure of the management team less than 2 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the average tenure of the board of directors team less than 3 years? (1 check)
  5. Transurban Group has a total score of 0/6, this is not included on the snowflake, see the detailed checks below.


Note: We use the top 6 management executives and board members in our calculations.

Note 2: Insider trading include any internal stakeholders and these transactions .

Full details on the Management part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

News

Simply Wall St News

Is Transurban Group (ASX:TCL) A Strong Dividend Stock?

Dividend paying stocks like Transurban Group (ASX:TCL) tend to be popular with investors, and for good reason - some research suggests a significant amount of all stock market returns come from reinvested dividends. If you are hoping to live on the income from dividends, it's important to be a lot more stringent with your investments than the average punter. A high yield and a long history of paying dividends is an appealing combination for Transurban Group. We'd guess that plenty of investors have purchased it for the income. Some simple analysis can offer a lot of insights when buying a company for its dividend, and we'll go through this below. Explore this interactive chart for our latest analysis on Transurban Group! ASX:TCL Historical Dividend Yield, September 5th 2019Payout ratios Dividends are usually paid out of company earnings. If a company is paying more than it earns, then the dividend might become unsustainable - hardly an ideal situation. As a result, we should always investigate whether a company can afford its dividend, measured as a percentage of a company's net income after tax. In the last year, Transurban Group paid out 889% of its profit as dividends. A payout ratio above 100% is definitely an item of concern, unless there are some other circumstances that would justify it. In addition to comparing dividends against profits, we should inspect whether the company generated enough cash to pay its dividend. Last year, Transurban Group paid a dividend while reporting negative free cash flow. While there may be an explanation, we think this behaviour is generally not sustainable. Is Transurban Group's Balance Sheet Risky? As Transurban Group's dividend was not well covered by earnings, we need to check its balance sheet for signs of financial distress. A rough way to check this is with these two simple ratios: a) net debt divided by EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation), and b) net interest cover. … Conclusion To summarise, shareholders should always check that Transurban Group's dividends are affordable, that its dividend payments are relatively stable, and that it has decent prospects for growing its earnings and dividend. … We're a bit uncomfortable with Transurban Group paying out a high percentage of both its cashflow and earnings.

Simply Wall St -

What Type Of Shareholder Owns Transurban Group's (ASX:TCL)?

The big shareholder groups in Transurban Group (ASX:TCL) have power over the company. … Taking a look at our data on the ownership groups (below), it's seems that institutions own shares in the company. … Check out our latest analysis for Transurban Group ASX:TCL Ownership Summary, August 23rd 2019 What Does The Institutional Ownership Tell Us About Transurban Group?

Simply Wall St -

Should You Be Concerned About Transurban Group's (ASX:TCL) ROE?

See our latest analysis for Transurban Group How Do I Calculate Return On Equity? … The formula for ROE is: Return on Equity = Net Profit ÷ Shareholders' Equity Or for Transurban Group: 1.5% = AU$170m ÷ AU$11b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2019.) It's easy to understand the 'net profit' part of that equation, but 'shareholders' equity' requires further explanation. … One simple way to determine if a company has a good return on equity is to compare it to the average for its industry.

Simply Wall St -

Is Transurban Group (ASX:TCL) Using Too Much Debt?

Importantly, Transurban Group (ASX:TCL) does carry debt. … View our latest analysis for Transurban Group How Much Debt Does Transurban Group Carry? … Notably, Transurban Group's EBIT was pretty flat over the last year, which isn't ideal given the debt load.

Simply Wall St -

Is Transurban Group (ASX:TCL) Worth AU$15.25 Based On Its Intrinsic Value?

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value: 10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Levered FCF (A$, Millions) A$1.6b A$1.7b A$1.9b A$2.0b A$2.2b A$2.3b A$2.4b A$2.5b A$2.6b A$2.7b Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Est @ 5.53% Est @ 4.56% Est @ 3.89% Est @ 3.42% Est @ 3.08% Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 8.66% A$1.5k A$1.5k A$1.5k A$1.4k A$1.4k A$1.4k A$1.3k A$1.3k A$1.2k A$1.2k ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= A$13.7b We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. … Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$2.7b × (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (8.7% – 2.3%) = AU$43b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = A$AU$43b ÷ ( 1 + 8.7%)10 = A$18.66b The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is A$32.32b. … ASX:TCL Intrinsic value, July 15th 2019 Important assumptions We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows.

Simply Wall St -

Here's What We Think About Transurban Group's (ASX:TCL) CEO Pay

We took a group of companies with market capitalizations over AU$11b, and calculated the median CEO total compensation to be AU$5.1m. … It would therefore appear that Transurban Group pays Scott Charlton more than the median CEO remuneration at large companies, in the same market. … We compared total CEO remuneration at Transurban Group with the amount paid at other large companies.

Simply Wall St -

Have Insiders Been Selling Transurban Group (ASX:TCL) Shares?

So we'll take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in Transurban Group (ASX:TCL). … Insiders at Transurban Group Have Sold Stock Recently The last three months saw significant insider selling at Transurban Group. … Transurban Group insiders own about AU$36m worth of shares.

Simply Wall St -

Should You Be Concerned About Transurban Group's (ASX:TCL) ROE?

The formula for ROE is: Return on Equity = Net Profit ÷ Shareholders' Equity Or for Transurban Group: 2.6% = AU$276m ÷ AU$11b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2018.) Most readers would understand what net profit is, but it’s worth explaining the concept of shareholders’ equity. … How Does Debt Impact Return On Equity? … A company that can achieve a high return on equity without debt could be considered a high quality business.

Simply Wall St -

Is Transurban Group (ASX:TCL) A Strong Dividend Stock?

Is Transurban Group (ASX:TCL) a good dividend stock? How would you know? A dividend paying company with growing earnings can be rewarding in the long term.. … With Transurban Group yielding 4.2% and having paid a dividend for over 10 years, many investors likely find the company quite interesting.! … Before you buy any stock for its dividend however, you should always remember Warren Buffett's two rules: 1) Don't lose money, and 2) Remember rule #1

Simply Wall St -

Investors Who Bought Transurban Group (ASX:TCL) Shares Five Years Ago Are Now Up 85%

For example, long term Transurban Group (ASX:TCL) shareholders have enjoyed a 85% share price rise over the last half decade, well in excess of the market return of around 6.7% (not including dividends). … Given that Transurban Group only made minimal earnings in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue to gauge its business development. … For the last half decade, Transurban Group can boast revenue growth at a rate of 22% per year.

Simply Wall St -

Company Info

Description

Transurban Group develops, operates, manages, maintains, and finances urban toll road networks. It holds 17 toll roads in Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane, Australia, as well as the Greater Washington area and Montreal, North America. The company is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.

Details
Name: Transurban Group
TCL
Exchange: ASX
Founded:
A$30,359,641,168
2,735,102,808
Website: http://www.transurban.com.au
Address: Transurban Group
Tower Five,
Level 31,
Melbourne,
Victoria, 3008,
Australia
Listings
Exchange Symbol Ticker Symbol Security Exchange Country Currency Listed on
ASX TCL Stapled Securities Australian Securities Exchange AU AUD 03. Apr 1996
OTCPK TRAU.F Stapled Securities Pink Sheets LLC US USD 03. Apr 1996
DB TU9 Stapled Securities Deutsche Boerse AG DE EUR 03. Apr 1996
DUSE TU9 Stapled Securities Dusseldorf Stock Exchange DE EUR 03. Apr 1996
CHIA TCL Stapled Securities Chi-X Australia AU AUD 03. Apr 1996
Number of employees
Current staff
Staff numbers
1,600
Transurban Group employees.
Industry
Highways and Railtracks
Transportation
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
Area Date (UTC time)
Company Analysis updated: 2020/04/04 10:33
End of day share price update: 2020/04/03 00:00
Last estimates confirmation: 2020/04/03
Last earnings filing: 2020/02/10
Last earnings reported: 2019/12/31
Last annual earnings reported: 2019/06/30


All dates and times in UTC. All financial data provided by Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.