Loading...

We've got a brand new version of Simply Wall St! Try it out

Bubs Australia

ASX:BUB
Snowflake Description

High growth potential with adequate balance sheet.

The Snowflake is generated from 30 checks in 5 different areas, read more below.
BUB
ASX
A$630M
Market Cap
  1. Home
  2. AU
  3. Food, Beverage & Tobacco
Company description

Bubs Australia Limited produces and sells various infant nutrition products in Australia, China, and internationally. The last earnings update was 35 days ago. More info.


Add to Portfolio Compare Print
BUB Share Price and Events
7 Day Returns
-1.2%
ASX:BUB
-0.4%
AU Food
1.3%
AU Market
1 Year Returns
140.2%
ASX:BUB
-10%
AU Food
9.9%
AU Market
BUB Shareholder Return
  7 Day 30 Day 90 Day 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Bubs Australia (BUB) -1.2% 4.7% -0.8% 140.2% - -
AU Food -0.4% 2.4% -2.3% -10% -6.5% 31.9%
AU Market 1.3% -0.6% -1% 9.9% 17.6% 17.8%
1 Year Return vs Industry and Market
  • BUB outperformed the Food industry which returned -10% over the past year.
  • BUB outperformed the Market in Australia which returned 9.9% over the past year.
Price Volatility
BUB
Industry
5yr Volatility vs Market

Value

 Is Bubs Australia undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?

Value is all about what a company is worth versus what price it is available for. If you went into a grocery store and all the bananas were on sale at half price, they could be considered undervalued.
INTRINSIC VALUE BASED ON FUTURE CASH FLOWS
Here we compare the current share price of Bubs Australia to its discounted cash flow analysis.value.

The discounted cash flow value is simply looking at what the company is worth today, based on estimates of how much money it is expected to make in the future.
Raw Data

Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Bubs Australia.

ASX:BUB Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 3 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 7.1%
Perpetual Growth Rate 10-Year AU Government Bond Rate 2.3%

An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for ASX:BUB
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 10-Year AU Govt Bond Rate 2.3%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 6%
Food Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 0.54
Re-levered Beta = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
= 0.542 (1 + (1- 30%) (0.32%))
0.694
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm)
0.8
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 2.31% + (0.8 * 5.96%)
7.08%

Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for ASX:BUB using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Bubs Australia is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

Note: Free cash flow to equity valuations ignore the company's cash or debt.

ASX:BUB DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (AUD, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 7.08%)
2020 -9.70 Analyst x1 -9.06
2021 5.20 Analyst x1 4.54
2022 3.50 Analyst x1 2.85
2023 32.10 Analyst x1 24.42
2024 47.00 Analyst x1 33.39
2025 58.70 Est @ 24.9% 38.94
2026 69.35 Est @ 18.13% 42.96
2027 78.63 Est @ 13.38% 45.49
2028 86.54 Est @ 10.06% 46.75
2029 93.23 Est @ 7.74% 47.04
Present value of next 10 years cash flows A$277.00
ASX:BUB DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= A$93.23 × (1 + 2.31%) ÷ (7.08% – 2.31%)
A$2,000.55
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
= A$2,000.55 ÷ (1 + 7.08%)10
A$1,009.40
ASX:BUB Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= A$277.00 + A$1,009.40
A$1,286.40
Equity Value per Share
(AUD)
= Total value / Shares Outstanding
= A$1,286.40 / 514.07
A$2.5
ASX:BUB Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Value per share (AUD) From above. A$2.50
Current discount Discount to share price of A$1.23
= -1 x (A$1.23 - A$2.50) / A$2.50
51%

Learn more about our DCF calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model .

Current Discount
Amount off the current price Bubs Australia is available for.
Intrinsic value
>50%
Share price is A$1.23 vs Future cash flow value of A$2.5
Current Discount Checks
For Bubs Australia to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the current price. Less than 40% is even better.
  • Bubs Australia's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
  • Bubs Australia's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.

The amount the stock market is willing to pay for Bubs Australia's earnings, growth and assets is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Are Bubs Australia's earnings available for a low price, and how does this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Raw Data
ASX:BUB PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Earnings Per Share * Company Filings (2019-06-30) in AUD A$-0.08
ASX:BUB Share Price ** ASX (2019-10-11) in AUD A$1.23
Australia Food Industry PE Ratio Median Figure of 21 Publicly-Listed Food Companies 25.25x
Australia Market PE Ratio Median Figure of 557 Publicly-Listed Companies 17.93x

* Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual GAAP earnings per share excluding extraordinary items.

** Primary Listing of Bubs Australia.

ASX:BUB PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PE Ratio

= ASX:BUB Share Price ÷ EPS (both in AUD)

= 1.23 ÷ -0.08

-15.72x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Bubs Australia is loss making, we can't compare its value to the AU Food industry average.
  • Bubs Australia is loss making, we can't compare the value of its earnings to the Australia market.
Price based on expected Growth
Does Bubs Australia's expected growth come at a high price?
Raw Data
ASX:BUB PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
PE Ratio See PE Ratio Section -15.72x
Net Income Annual Growth Rate See Future Growth Section.
Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 3 Analysts
61.9%per year
Australia Food Industry PEG Ratio Median Figure of 13 Publicly-Listed Food Companies 1.47x
Australia Market PEG Ratio Median Figure of 357 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.69x

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Unable to calculate PEG ratio for Bubs Australia, we can't assess if its growth is good value.
Price based on value of assets
What value do investors place on Bubs Australia's assets?
Raw Data
ASX:BUB PB (Price to Book) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Book Value per Share Company Filings (2019-06-30) in AUD A$0.21
ASX:BUB Share Price * ASX (2019-10-11) in AUD A$1.23
Australia Food Industry PB Ratio Median Figure of 43 Publicly-Listed Food Companies 1.24x
Australia Market PB Ratio Median Figure of 1,705 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.8x
ASX:BUB PB (Price to Book) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PB Ratio

= ASX:BUB Share Price ÷ Book Value per Share (both in AUD)

= 1.23 ÷ 0.21

5.91x

* Primary Listing of Bubs Australia.

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Bubs Australia is overvalued based on assets compared to the AU Food industry average.
X
Value checks
We assess Bubs Australia's value by looking at:
  1. Is the discounted cash flow value less than 20%, or 40% of the share price? (2 checks) ( Click here or on bar chart for details of DCF calculation. )
  2. Is the PE ratio less than the market average, and/ or less than the Food industry average (and greater than 0)? (2 checks)
  3. Is the PEG ratio within a reasonable range (0 to 1)? (1 check)
  4. Is the PB ratio less than the Food industry average (and greater than 0)? (1 check)
  5. Bubs Australia has a total score of 2/6, see the detailed checks below.

    Note: We use GAAP Earnings per Share in all our calculations including PE and PEG Ratio.

    Full details on the Value part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Future Performance

 How is Bubs Australia expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past performance, by looking at estimated growth and how much profit it is expected to make.

Future estimates come from professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get it right!
Annual Growth Rate
61.9%
Expected annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
Is Bubs Australia expected to grow at an attractive rate?
  • Bubs Australia's earnings growth is expected to exceed the low risk savings rate of 2.3%.
Growth vs Market Checks
  • Bubs Australia's earnings growth is expected to exceed the Australia market average.
  • Bubs Australia's revenue growth is expected to exceed the Australia market average.
Annual Growth Rates Comparison
Raw Data
ASX:BUB Future Growth Rates Data Sources
Data Point Source Value (per year)
ASX:BUB Future Earnings Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 3 Analysts 61.9%
ASX:BUB Future Revenue Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Revenue of 3 Analysts 32.9%
Australia Food Industry Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 35.7%
Australia Food Industry Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 9.1%
Australia Market Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 10.2%
Australia Market Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 3.6%

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Learn more about our growth rate calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model.

Analysts growth expectations
Raw Data
ASX:BUB Analysts Growth Expectations Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (3 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 3 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
All numbers in AUD Millions and using Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
ASX:BUB Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in AUD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income * Avg. No. Analysts
2024-06-30 297 47 50 1
2023-06-30 271 32 46 1
2022-06-30 183 8 18 2
2021-06-30 120 8 9 3
2020-06-30 71 2 1 2
2019-10-13
ASX:BUB Past Financials Data
Date (Data in AUD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income *
2019-06-30 44 -25 -36
2019-03-31 39 -23 -53
2018-12-31 33 -21 -70
2018-09-30 25 -17 -67
2018-06-30 17 -13 -65
2018-03-31 11 -9 -35
2017-12-31 5 -6 -5
2017-09-30 5 -4 -5
2017-06-30 4 -2 -5
2017-03-31 4 -3 -5
2016-12-31 3 -3 -5
2016-09-30 3 -3 -3

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Super high growth metrics
High Growth Checks
  • Bubs Australia's earnings are expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.
  • Bubs Australia's revenue is expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Raw Data
ASX:BUB Past and Future Earnings per Share
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (3 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 3 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below

All data from Bubs Australia Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

ASX:BUB Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in AUD Millions) EPS * EPS High Estimate EPS Low Estimate Avg. No. Analysts
2024-06-30 0.09 0.09 0.09 1.00
2023-06-30 0.08 0.08 0.08 1.00
2022-06-30 0.04 0.04 0.03 2.00
2021-06-30 0.02 0.02 0.02 3.00
2020-06-30 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00
2019-10-13
ASX:BUB Past Financials Data
Date (Data in AUD Millions) EPS *
2019-06-30 -0.08
2019-03-31 -0.12
2018-12-31 -0.17
2018-09-30 -0.18
2018-06-30 -0.20
2018-03-31 -0.12
2017-12-31 -0.02
2017-09-30 -0.02
2017-06-30 -0.02
2017-03-31 -0.03
2016-12-31 -0.03
2016-09-30 -0.03

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance in 3 years
In the same way as past performance we look at the future estimated return (profit) compared to the available funds. We do this looking forward 3 years.
  • Bubs Australia is not expected to efficiently use shareholders’ funds in the future (Return on Equity less than 20%).
X
Future performance checks
We assess Bubs Australia's future performance by looking at:
  1. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the low risk savings rate, plus a premium to keep pace with inflation?
  2. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in earnings of the Australia market? (1 check)
  3. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in revenue of the Australia market? (1 check)
  4. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  6. Is the Return on Equity in 3 years expected to be over 20%? (1 check)
Some of the above checks will fail if the company is expected to be loss making in the relevant year.
Bubs Australia has a total score of 5/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note 1: We use GAAP Net Income Excluding Exceptional Items for our Earnings in all our calculations.

Full details on the Future part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Past Performance

  How has Bubs Australia performed over the past 5 years?

The past performance of a company can be measured by how much growth it has experienced and how much profit it makes relative to the funds and assets it has available.
Past earnings growth
Below we compare Bubs Australia's growth in the last year to its industry (Food).
Past Earnings growth analysis
We also check if the company has grown in the past 5 years, and whether it has maintained that growth in the year.
  • Bubs Australia does not make a profit and their year on year earnings growth rate was negative over the past 5 years.
  • Unable to compare Bubs Australia's 1-year earnings growth to the 5-year average as it is not currently profitable.
  • Unable to compare Bubs Australia's 1-year growth to the AU Food industry average as it is not currently profitable.
Earnings and Revenue History
Bubs Australia's revenue and profit over the past 5 years is shown below, any years where they have experienced a loss will show up in red.
Raw Data

All data from Bubs Australia Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

ASX:BUB Past Revenue, Cash Flow and Net Income Data
Date (Data in AUD Millions) Revenue Net Income * G+A Expenses R&D Expenses
2019-06-30 43.91 -35.51 38.20
2019-03-31 38.57 -52.55 26.52
2018-12-31 33.23 -69.59 14.84
2018-09-30 25.07 -67.13 12.97
2018-06-30 16.91 -64.66 11.09
2018-03-31 11.15 -35.04 7.59
2017-12-31 5.40 -5.42 4.08
2017-09-30 4.67 -5.24 4.15
2017-06-30 3.93 -5.06 4.22
2017-03-31 3.57 -4.85 4.61
2016-12-31 3.21 -4.64 5.00
2016-09-30 3.43 -2.97 3.43
2016-06-30 3.66 -1.29 1.87
2015-06-30 1.82 -0.36 0.71
2014-06-30 1.13 -1.41 0.67

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance last year
We want to ensure a company is making the most of what it has available. This is done by comparing the return (profit) to a company's available funds, assets and capital.
  • It is difficult to establish if Bubs Australia has efficiently used shareholders’ funds last year (Return on Equity greater than 20%) as it is loss-making.
  • It is difficult to establish if Bubs Australia has efficiently used its assets last year compared to the AU Food industry average (Return on Assets) as it is loss-making.
  • It is difficult to establish if Bubs Australia improved its use of capital last year versus 3 years ago (Return on Capital Employed) as it is currently loss-making.
X
Past performance checks
We assess Bubs Australia's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
  1. Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
  2. Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the Food industry? (1 check)
  3. Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
  6. Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
Bubs Australia has a total score of 0/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.

Full details on the Past part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Health

 How is Bubs Australia's financial health and their level of debt?

A company's financial position is much like your own financial position, it includes everything you own (assets) and owe (liabilities).

The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up Bubs Australia's finances.

The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Net Worth
  • Bubs Australia is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
  • Bubs Australia's cash and other short term assets cover its long term commitments.
Balance sheet
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of Bubs Australia's finances. If any of them are yellow this indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the checks below.
Assets
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
  • Low level of unsold assets.
  • Debt is covered by short term assets, assets are 28.5x debt.
Historical Debt
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t bad, however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest on its debts this may have impacts in the future.

The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to see the red area (debt) decreasing.

If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Raw Data

All data from Bubs Australia Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago.

ASX:BUB Past Debt and Equity Data
Date (Data in AUD Millions) Total Equity Total Debt Cash & Short Term Investments
2019-06-30 105.65 2.00 23.66
2019-03-31 105.65 2.00 23.66
2018-12-31 65.64 2.00 26.71
2018-09-30 65.64 2.00 26.71
2018-06-30 72.52 2.00 38.64
2018-03-31 72.52 2.00 38.64
2017-12-31 92.84 2.00 8.69
2017-09-30 92.84 2.00 8.69
2017-06-30 7.52 0.00 5.31
2017-03-31 7.52 0.00 5.31
2016-12-31 9.17 0.04 6.08
2016-09-30 9.17 0.04 6.08
2016-06-30 5.34 0.04 2.08
2015-06-30 0.23 1.25 0.01
2014-06-30 0.59 0.94 0.02
  • Bubs Australia's level of debt (1.9%) compared to net worth is satisfactory (less than 40%).
  • The level of debt compared to net worth has been reduced over the past 5 years (159.8% vs 1.9% today).
CASH RUNWAY ANALYSIS

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

  • Bubs Australia has less than a year of cash runway based on current free cash flow.
  • Unable to confirm if Bubs Australia has at least 1 year of cash runway based on growing free cash flows without relevant data.
X
Financial health checks
We assess Bubs Australia's financial health by checking for:
  1. Are short term assets greater than short term liabilities? (1 check)
  2. Are short term assets greater than long term liabilities? (1 check)
  3. Has the debt to equity ratio increased in the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the debt to equity ratio over 40%? (1 check)
  5. Is the debt covered by operating cash flow? (1 check)
  6. Are earnings greater than 5x the interest on debt (if company pays interest at all)? (1 check)
  7. Bubs Australia has a total score of 4/6, see the detailed checks below.
For companies that are loss making and have been so on average in the past we replace the last 2 checks with:
  1. Does cash and short term investments cover stable operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)
  2. Does cash and short term investments cover growing operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)


Full details on the Health part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Dividends

 What is Bubs Australia's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividends are regular cash payments to you from the company, similar to a bank paying you interest on a savings account.
Annual Dividend Income
Dividend payments
0%
Current annual income from Bubs Australia dividends. Estimated to be 0% next year.
If you bought A$2,000 of Bubs Australia shares you are expected to receive A$0 in your first year as a dividend.
Dividend Amount
Here we look how much dividend is being paid, if any. Is it above what you can get in a savings account? It is up there with the best dividend paying companies?
  • Unable to evaluate Bubs Australia's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers as the company has not reported any payouts.
  • Unable to evaluate Bubs Australia's dividend against the top 25% market benchmark as the company has not reported any payouts.
Annualized Historical and Future Dividends
It is important to see if the dividend for a company is stable, and not wildly increasing/decreasing each year. This graph shows you the historical rate to count toward your assessment of the stock.

We also check to see if the dividend has increased in the past 10 years.
Raw Data
ASX:BUB Annualized Past and Future Dividends
Data Point Source Value
Past Annualized Dividend Yield S&P Global Market Data See Below
Past Dividends per Share Company Filings/ Annualized Dividend Payments See Below
Future Dividends per Share Estimates Average of up to 3 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
Australia Food Industry Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 13 Stocks 3.1%
Australia Market Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 407 Stocks 4.2%
Australia Minimum Threshold Dividend Yield 10th Percentile 1.6%
Australia Bottom 25% Dividend Yield 25th Percentile 2.5%
Australia Top 25% Dividend Yield 75th Percentile 5.6%

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Note all dividend per share amounts are annualized and not quarterly or other period.

ASX:BUB Future Dividends Estimate Data
Date (Data in A$) Dividend per Share (annual) Avg. No. Analysts
2024-06-30
2023-06-30
2022-06-30 0.00 1.00
2021-06-30 0.00 1.00
2020-06-30 0.00 1.00
2019-10-13

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Unable to perform a dividend volatility check as Bubs Australia has not reported any payouts.
  • Unable to verify if Bubs Australia's dividend has been increasing as the company has not reported any payouts.
Current Payout to shareholders
What portion of Bubs Australia's earnings are paid to the shareholders as a dividend.
  • Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as Bubs Australia has not reported any payouts.
Future Payout to shareholders
  • No need to calculate the sustainability of Bubs Australia's dividends in 3 years as they are not expected to pay a notable one for Australia.
X
Income/ dividend checks
We assess Bubs Australia's dividend by checking for:
  1. Firstly is the company paying a notable dividend (greater than 1.6%) - if not then the rest of the checks are ignored.
  2. Is current dividend yield above the bottom 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  3. Is current dividend yield above the top 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  4. Have they paid a dividend for 10 years, and during this period has the dividend been volatile (drop of more than 25%)? (1 check)
  5. If they have paid a dividend for 10 years has it increased in this time? (1 check)
  6. How sustainable is the dividend, can Bubs Australia afford to pay it from its earnings today and in 3 years (Payout ratio less than 90%)? (2 checks)
  7. Bubs Australia has a total score of 0/6, see the detailed checks below.


Full details on the Dividends part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Management

 What is the CEO of Bubs Australia's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have been around for and insider trading.
CEO
Kristy-Lee Carr
COMPENSATION A$1,706,874
TENURE AS CEO 1.1 years
CEO Bio

Ms. Kristy-Lee Newland Carr, BBus Founded Bubs Australia Limited in 2006 and has been its Chief Executive Officer since September 2018 and Executive Director since December 22, 2016. Ms. Carr served as Managing Director of Bubs Australia Limited from December 22, 2016 to September 2018. Ms. Carr served as Chief Executive Officer of Bubs Australia Limited since December 20, 2015. She served as Managing Director and co-Chief Executive Officer of The Infant Food Holding Co. Pty Limited (IFC) (now, Bubs Australia Limited). She oversees its business development, national and international sales & marketing and retail industry relations in both the online and offline sectors. She has an in-depth knowledge of all facets of the baby category. She was a Co-Founder of the Bubs brand and product range. She developed a Kids Learn Mandarin children's educational digital business. During the 1990's, she worked in brand communications across a number of leading advertising agencies on high-profile FMCG food and children brands, including Johnson & Johnson and Nestle. Prior to co-founding the Bubs brand, she worked at Cathay Pacific, Hong Kong in the role of International Communications Strategist. She has a Bachelor of Business Degree from Queensland University of Technology.

CEO Compensation
  • Kristy-Lee's compensation has increased whilst company is loss making.
  • Kristy-Lee's remuneration is higher than average for companies of similar size in Australia.
Management Team Tenure

Average tenure of the Bubs Australia management team in years:

1
Average Tenure
  • The average tenure for the Bubs Australia management team is less than 2 years, this suggests a new team.
Management Team

Kristy-Lee Carr

TITLE
Founder
COMPENSATION
A$2M
TENURE
1.1 yrs

Anthony Gualdi

TITLE
Co-Founder
COMPENSATION
A$235K
TENURE
14.8 yrs

Iris Ren

TITLE
Chief Financial Officer
COMPENSATION
A$234K
TENURE
1 yrs

David Orton

TITLE
General Manager of Commercial
COMPENSATION
A$315K
TENURE
1 yrs

Richard Paine

TITLE
General Manager of Dairy Operations
COMPENSATION
A$265K
TENURE
0.7 yrs

Vivian Zurlo

TITLE
General Manager of Marketing
TENURE
0.3 yrs

Jay Stephenson

TITLE
Company Secretary
TENURE
4.1 yrs

Charles Li

TITLE
Chief Operating Officer of China
Board of Directors Tenure

Average tenure of the Bubs Australia board of directors in years:

2.5
Average Tenure
  • The average tenure for the Bubs Australia board of directors is less than 3 years, this suggests a new board.
Board of Directors

Dennis Lin

TITLE
Non-Executive Chairman
COMPENSATION
A$164K
TENURE
2.2 yrs

Kristy-Lee Carr

TITLE
Founder
COMPENSATION
A$2M
TENURE
2.8 yrs

Matthew Reynolds

TITLE
Non-Executive Director
COMPENSATION
A$44K
AGE
49
TENURE
2.8 yrs

Steve Lin

TITLE
Non-Executive Director
COMPENSATION
A$8K
TENURE
0.5 yrs
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
  • No 3 month open market individual insider trading information.
Recent Insider Transactions
Announced Type Name Entity Role Start End Shares Max Price (A$) Value (A$)
14. May 19 Sell Kristy-Lee Carr Individual 07. May 19 13. May 19 -4,000,000 A$1.48 A$-5,920,001
X
Management checks
We assess Bubs Australia's management by checking for:
  1. Is the CEO's compensation unreasonable compared to market cap? (1 check)
  2. Has the CEO's compensation increased more than 20% whilst the EPS is down more then 20%? (1 check)
  3. Is the average tenure of the management team less than 2 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the average tenure of the board of directors team less than 3 years? (1 check)
  5. Bubs Australia has a total score of 0/6, this is not included on the snowflake, see the detailed checks below.


Note: We use the top 6 management executives and board members in our calculations.

Note 2: Insider trading include any internal stakeholders and these transactions .

Full details on the Management part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

News

Simply Wall St News

Is Now The Time To Look At Buying Bubs Australia Limited (ASX:BUB)?

According to my valuation model, Bubs Australia seems to be fairly priced at around 19% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Bubs Australia today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. … Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. … BUB’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around its fair value.

Simply Wall St -

What Kind Of Shareholder Owns Most Bubs Australia Limited (ASX:BUB) Stock?

The big shareholder groups in Bubs Australia Limited (ASX:BUB) have power over the company. … View our latest analysis for Bubs Australia ASX:BUB Ownership Summary, August 5th 2019 What Does The Institutional Ownership Tell Us About Bubs Australia? … Insider Ownership Of Bubs Australia The definition of company insiders can be subjective, and does vary between jurisdictions.

Simply Wall St -

Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Bubs Australia Limited (ASX:BUB)

Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. … Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value: 10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Levered FCF (A$, Millions) A$-11.5m A$-3.5m A$12.5m A$56.2m A$51.7m A$49.0m A$47.6m A$47.0m A$46.9m A$47.1m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ -5.13% Est @ -2.9% Est @ -1.34% Est @ -0.24% Est @ 0.52% Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 7.08% A$-10.7 A$-3.1 A$10.2 A$42.7 A$36.7 A$32.5 A$29.5 A$27.2 A$25.3 A$23.8 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= A$214.2m We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. … Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$47m × (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (7.1% – 2.3%) = AU$1.0b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = A$AU$1.0b ÷ ( 1 + 7.1%)10 = A$510.17m The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is A$724.35m.

Simply Wall St -

Does The Bubs Australia Limited (ASX:BUB) Share Price Fall With The Market?

Modern finance theory considers volatility to be a measure of risk, and there are two main types of price volatility. … Some investors use beta as a measure of how much a certain stock is impacted by market risk (volatility). … Any stock with a beta of greater than one is considered more volatile than the market, while those with a beta below one are either less volatile or poorly correlated with the market.

Simply Wall St -

Do Directors Own Bubs Australia Limited (ASX:BUB) Shares?

If you want to know who really controls Bubs Australia Limited (ASX:BUB), then you'll have to look at the makeup of its share registry. … With a market capitalization of AU$212m, Bubs Australia is a small cap stock, so it might not be well known by many institutional investors. … See our latest analysis for Bubs Australia

Simply Wall St -

Breakeven On The Horizon For Bubs Australia Limited (ASX:BUB)

Bubs Australia Limited's (ASX:BUB):. … Bubs Australia Limited produces and sells organic baby food and goat milk infant formula products in Australia, China, and internationally. … Check out our latest analysis for Bubs Australia

Simply Wall St -

Analysts Expect Breakeven For Bubs Australia Limited (ASX:BUB)

Bubs Australia Limited produces a range of infant food products under the BUBS brand in Australia and internationally. … The AU$291.39m market-cap posted a loss in its most recent financial year of -AU$5.06m and a latest trailing-twelve-month loss of -AU$5.42m leading to an even wider gap between loss and breakeven? … Check out our latest analysis for Bubs Australia

Simply Wall St -

Financially Strong And High Growth Stocks

ASX:BUB Future Profit Jun 6th 18 Macmahon Holdings Limited (ASX:MAH) Macmahon Holdings Limited provides contract mining services to clients in Australia, New Zealand, South East Asia, Mongolia, and Africa. … MAH’s projected future profit growth is an exceptional 50.81%, with an underlying triple-digit growth from its revenues expected over the upcoming years. … BAL’s projected future profit growth is a robust 38.72%, with an underlying 48.92% growth from its revenues expected over the upcoming years.

Simply Wall St -

Bubs Australia Limited's (ASX:BUB) Shift From Loss To Profit

Bubs Australia Limited's (ASX:BUB): Bubs Australia Limited produces a range of infant food products under the BUBS brand in Australia and internationally. … View our latest analysis for Bubs Australia According to the industry analysts covering BUB, breakeven is near. … Working backwards from analyst estimates, it turns out that they expect the company to grow 66.45% year-on-year, on average, which signals high confidence from analysts.

Simply Wall St -

Should You Invest In The Consumer Discretionary Sector And Bubs Australia Limited (ASX:BUB)?

ASX:BUB PE PEG Gauge Nov 13th 17 The food product industry is trading at a PE ratio of 13x, relatively similar to the rest of the Australian stock market PE of 17x. … If your initial investment thesis is around the growth prospects of BUB, there are other food product companies that have delivered higher growth, and perhaps trading at a discount to the industry average. … Although its growth has delivered lower growth relative to its food product peers in the near term, the market may be pessimistic on the stock, leading to a potential undervaluation.

Simply Wall St -

Company Info

Description

Bubs Australia Limited produces and sells various infant nutrition products in Australia, China, and internationally. It offers organic baby food, goat milk infant formula, adult goat milk powder, and fresh dairy products, as well as cereals and toddler snacks. The company also provides canning services for nutritional dairy products. It sells its products to supermarkets and pharmacies. The company also exports its products to China, South East Asia, and the Middle East. Bubs Australia Limited was founded in 2005 and is based in Frenchs Forest, Australia.

Details
Name: Bubs Australia Limited
BUB
Exchange: ASX
Founded: 2005
A$629,736,820
514,070,874
Website: http://www.bubsaustralia.com
Address: Bubs Australia Limited
2-4/6 Tilley Lane,
Frenchs Forest,
New South Wales, 2086,
Australia
Listings
Exchange Symbol Ticker Symbol Security Exchange Country Currency Listed on
ASX BUB New Ordinary Shares Australian Securities Exchange AU AUD 03. Jan 2017
DB 23O New Ordinary Shares Deutsche Boerse AG DE EUR 03. Jan 2017
CHIA BUB New Ordinary Shares Chi-X Australia AU AUD 03. Jan 2017
Number of employees
Current staff
Staff numbers
32
Bubs Australia employees.
Industry
Packaged Foods and Meats
Food, Beverage & Tobacco
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
Area Date (UTC time)
Company Analysis updated: 2019/10/13 10:46
End of day share price update: 2019/10/11 00:00
Last estimates confirmation: 2019/10/01
Last earnings filing: 2019/09/08
Last earnings reported: 2019/06/30
Last annual earnings reported: 2019/06/30


All dates and times in UTC. All financial data provided by Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.