Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for NSX:SUG using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
Note: Free cash flow to equity valuations ignore the company's cash or debt.
NSX:SUG DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Sugar Terminals's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Sugar Terminals's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Sugar Terminals's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
In this section we usually present revenue and earnings growth projections based on the consensus estimates of professional analysts to help investors understand the company’s ability to generate profit. But as Sugar Terminals has not provided enough past data and has no analyst forecast, its future earnings cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst predictions.
This is quite a rare situation as 97% of companies covered by Simply Wall St do have past financial data. You can see them here.
Show me the analysis anyway
The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past
performance, by looking at estimated
and how much profit it is expected to make.
Future estimates come from
professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get
Expected Commercial Services industry annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
expected to grow at an
Unable to compare Sugar Terminals's earnings growth to the low risk savings rate as no estimate data is available.
Growth vs Market Checks
Unable to compare Sugar Terminals's earnings growth to the Australia market average as no estimate data is available.
Unable to compare Sugar Terminals's revenue growth to the Australia market average as no estimate data is available.
Unable to determine if Sugar Terminals is high growth as no earnings estimate data is available.
Unable to determine if Sugar Terminals is high growth as no revenue estimate data is available.
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Sugar Terminals's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
3/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. John P. Warda has been the Chief Executive Officer at Sugar Terminals Limited since April 3, 2017. Mr. Warda served as Director of Global Supply Chain at Emerald Grain Pty. Ltd. He has been with Emerald Grain Pty. Ltd. in 2011 until April 2016. He served as Group General Manager of Operations & Supply Chain at Emerald Grain Pty. Ltd. since 2011. He served as an Executive Manager of Group Operations, Executive Manager of National Supply Chain and General Manager of Storage & Handling of Viterra Ltd. He has an extensive career in the Australian Grains industry which has spanned over 38 years, the majority of which were spent in senior management and Executive roles in supply chain, logistics and operations. He served a pivotal role in communicating the benefits to growers and staff and continued in a transitionary Executive Corporate services until April 2009 and also served as a Consultant. He has industry experience and on the board of ICHCA Australia.
John's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year, both up more than 20%.
John's remuneration is lower than average for companies of similar size in Australia.
Chief Executive Officer
CFO & Company Secretary
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure of the
board of directors in years:
The tenure for the Sugar Terminals board of directors is about average.
Board of Directors
Independent Non-Executive Chairman
Independent Non-Executive Director
Independent Non-Executive Director
Non Executive Director
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
No 3 month open market individual insider trading information.
Sugar Terminals Limited provides storage and handling solutions for bulk sugar and other commodities in Australia. The company owns six bulk sugar terminals in Queensland ports comprising Cairns, Mourilyan, Lucinda, Townsville, Mackay, and Bundaberg. Sugar Terminals Limited was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Brisbane, Australia.
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